England play Netherlands and Italy over the next few days in their final top-level friendlies before the World Cup begins in Russia, and yet despite the tournament now being close manager Gareth Southgate still doesn’t have a settled formation – let alone a clear idea of his first 11.
Problems have emerged at centre-back due to underperformance from England’s leading defenders in the 2017/18 Premier League season, while Harry Kane’s injury and Joe Hart’s continued poor form have given the coach a serious selection headache.
Here are five key questions ahead of England’s crucial international friendlies:
1) Will Southgate abandon the back three?
Defensive issues (more on that later) have raised question marks over whether Gareth Southgate will continue to play a 3-4-2-1 formation or move to a more traditional English tactic. The system looked well suited to England six months ago, but with both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City dripping the system few of its supposed merits remain.
What’s more, a serious dearth of quality in central midfield means England might need to field three in the middle, which necessitates using a back four. It is also difficult to fit Raheem Sterling into the England squad in a wing-backs system, while Marcus Rashford only gets a start if England play with two strikers.
However, Southgate seemingly committed to a 3-4-2-1 (or a variant of it) during those 0-0 friendly draws against Germany and Brazil. To suddenly change system now might create nervousness in the camp - or raise concerns that the inexperienced head coach is indecisive.
2) Can Vardy show why he could be a more effective counter-attacking option than Kane?
Harry Kane’s ankle injury isn’t necessarily bad news for England. The Tottenham Hotspur striker is undoubtedly the nation’s best footballer, and a guaranteed starter this summer provided he recovers in time, but his absence for these friendlies gives Jamie Vardy a chance to prove his worth.
Tactically, England are fine when allowed to dominate possession (against lower ranking sides) but struggle when required to sit back and play a counter-attacking game, something Southgate has attempted to address by arranging high-profile friendly matches. Kane is not the quickest, and so he is not necessarily a good option for the tighter knock-out matches.
Vardy, by contrast, is the perfect striker to play on the shoulder of the last defender, helping England launch counters using his pace. It is plausible that two strong performances from Vardy against Netherlands and Italy put him in contention for a starting role at the World Cup – in a system that sees Kane drop into a deeper, more creative position.
3) Can Tarkowski or Mawson become a World Cup starter?
Phil Jones and Chris Smalling have both underperformed for Manchester United this season, as has Michael Keane, while John Stones and Gary Cahill aren’t even getting into the first team at Manchester City and Chelsea. All of a sudden, there is a bit of a crisis at the back.
As a result Southgate has brought James Tarkowski and Alfie Mawson into the squad, and both players could become regular starters should they shine this week. Sean Dyche’s brilliant coaching (and use of a deep, narrow blockade) consistently makes centre-backs look better than they really are, which might explain why Keane has struggled at Everton. Consequently so there remains a big question mark over Tarkowski.
But Mawson, who plays in a back three under Carlos Carvalhal, has all the makings of a solid England international. The 24-year-old is strong in the air, comfortable in possession, and left-footed – a rare commodity. He might be the biggest individual winner to come out of this international break.
4) Who will Southgate pick as his number one?
Joe Hart remains optimistic he will be England’s first-choice goalkeeper at the World Cup this summer because Southgate is a “loyal guy”, but it would be astonishing if he remained number one against Netherlands and Italy. Not only has Hart dropped behind Adrian in the pecking order at West Ham United, his most recent league appearance a fortnight ago saw him make a serious error as Burnley won 3-0.
Southgate has claimed to only pick those who are playing regularly at club level, so surely that means Jordan Pickford, Jack Butland, or Nick Pope will get the nod. Pope is arguably in the best form among these three, although Pickford is considerably more established; whichever Southgate chooses this week will give us a definitive answer regarding his World Cup selection.
5) Will Jack Wilshere fill the creative gap in the England midfield?
England are perhaps lacking creativity in central attacking midfield these days. Ross Barkley’s injury has left him on the outskirts of the squad while Adam Lallana is struggling to get into the Liverpool first 11.
But Wilshere, a clear favourite of Southgate’s who has largely played in a deeper role for his country, could play as the number ten – as he has on several occasions over the last month for Arsenal. The 26-year-old was particularly impressive at the tip of midfield in the 2-0 win over AC Milan in Italy, linking play neatly and bringing Arsenal’s forwards into the game. Finally playing at his best, Wilshere could be England’s secret weapon at the World Cup.
