Amstel Gold 2018 Preview

Amstel Gold 2018 Preview
14:55, 14 Apr 2018

The Race

Amstel Gold, a stamina-sapping 260 kilometres to kick off the Ardennes Classics and a race with a rich history in itself too.

The Hills

Short, sharp and frequent in number – brutally so. There’s no less than 35 of them and many are taken more than once.

The Route

Takes in all of the above climbs into just 260 kilometres, which means the climbing starts from just 215 kilometres in. The hardest part of the race comes between 200 and 240 kilometres, after which the legs ought to have been sapped, and these climbs will probably play a leading role in deciding the race - the Kruisberg  (600m at 8.8%) Eyserbosweg (900m at 9.3%), Fromberg (1.6km at 3.6% but with a maximum of 8.0%), Keutenberg (1.2km at 5.9% but a max of 22%), and the third ascent of the Cauberg (800m at 6.5% with a maximum of 12.8%).

Expect to see several teams try and put less punchy rivals under pressure here to force a selection with the new finish.

The Finish

Has had a change from the organisers in recent times, with the fourth ascent of the Cauberg removed as the final ascent of the day to spice up the race and make it more unpredictable. The final ascent is now the Bemelerberg (900m at 4.6%), 6.9km from the finish, giving the late attackers more of an advantage.

The run after the Cauberg is different too - the route doesn’t continue on the N590, as it did last year, but just before the ascent the riders take a right-hand turn and race on narrow roads to the foot of the Bemelerberg, the day’s last climb.

The finish itself takes place on rolling roads that aren’t quite flat – indeed there is a climb up to the final straight that averages 1.7% for almost 1.5km – and the final 500m takes place on a drag so the timing of the sprint is very important as was shown last year.

The Contenders

Philippe Gilbert (Quick-Step) is a four-time winner of this race including last year with the modified changes which if anything suit him more given his speed. Once again Quick-Step have the whip hand in terms of team strength and whilst they finally suffered in Paris-Roubaix with too much marking in the second group, Gilbert was having just his second ride there and some over-eagerness told with an attack on the Arenberg perhaps too far out. He can win solo or from a group and should go really well.

It’s tough to know if he will be the leader given the exemplary form of Julian Alaphilippe, a two-time winner at the Basque Country when he beat the overall winner Primoz Roglic on both occasions with a fine sprint and the two look the likeliest choices for Quick-Step.

Bora Hangrohe’s Peter Sagan is here. The World Champion hasn’t been here since 2013 but is a better rider five years later and his 36th then showed that this course wasn’t alien to him. His performance at Paris-Roubaix was exceptional, perhaps a career best given how he left the leading field for dust before pulling with Diller and beating him in a Velodrome sprint, and he will spark a panic amongst many contenders who know they cannot beat him from a reduced group. He’s a rightful favourite but don’t forget Jay McCarthy, winner of a very tough stage at the Tour of the Basque Country and a useful tactical option.

Tim Wellens (Lotto-Soudal) has grown into one of the most complete riders in the peloton and his 2018 has been exceptional, with four wins matching half of his victor tally through the whole of last year. The latest of those was a sensational win in De Brabantse Pijl with a well-timed late attack to escape the clutches of many other World Tour teams and whilst that does not translate into automatic Sunday success he’s got to be watched closely.

Teammate Tiesj Benoot is making it at the top level and still riding a hot streak of form. Since winning Strade Bianche he has top 10s at E3 Harelbeke, Dwars door Vlaanderen and the Tour of Flanders and the latest route changes are excellent news for him and tactically this ought to be more favourable for him.

Since 2014 Movistar's evergreen Alejandro Valverde has won 50 percent of the Ardennes Classics so it’s amazing he’s never won Amstel Gold but he’s finished second twice and has come back from injury better than ever with two stages and the overall at the Volta a la Valenciana, the Abu Dhabi Tour, two stages and the overall at the Volta Catalunya, and the GP Miguel Indurain. He will need much smaller group than most but who can doubt him?

Michal Kwiatkowski (Sky) won this from a reduced sprint in 2015 and then opened up too early having gotten away with Gilbert on the Brambelberg last year. He’s hit some real high notes this season, taking Tirreno-Adriatico and the Volta ao Algarve overall although he seemed very tried through the Tour of the Basque Country and it’s a worry that he might not have recovered in time.

Michael Albasini (Mitchelton-Scott) was third last year and can go well again, with a reduced group being his best chance.

The route (via @LasterketaBurua)
The route (via @LasterketaBurua)
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