Three football federation presidents, three coaches and 42 players have been involved in Argentina’s qualifying campaign for the 2018 World Cup, and the result of all that turbulence is that they go into the final match of the process away to Ecuador on Tuesday with an unthinkable thought still floating in the air: they might fail to qualify.
The latest bump in the road came on Thursday, with a 0-0 draw at home to direct rivals Peru. It was Argentina’s third consecutive draw since Jorge Sampaoli replaced Edgardo Bauza (who had himself replaced Gerardo Martino) in June and a result that leaves them realistically requiring victory at the altitude of Quito to avoiding missing out on Russia 2018.
The situation would have been really grim for them had Colombia not given up a one-goal lead to lose at home to Paraguay on Thursday. As it is, Argentina’s fate is in their own hands. Three points against Ecuador will guarantee them a top-five finish. The worst outcome would be an intercontinental playoff against New Zealand, and with all due respect to the Oceania side, Argentina would be firm favourites to win out over two legs.
It was certainly not a sparkling performance against Peru, but when Lionel Messi found space, opportunities arrived. He was not at his sharpest but still set up five good chances inside the area, hit the post himself and curled another effort just wide.
It seems inappropriate to turn to something as sober as Expected Goals to explain the visceral world of South American World Cup qualifying but most models did show that Argentina (or should that be Messi?) created enough chances to have reasonably scored at least once, probably twice. Some mix of average finishing and inspired goalkeeping prevented them from doing so.
Lack Of Goals
But the problem runs deeper than one match. It has been 435 minutes since an Argentina player last scored a goal in qualifying. Their only competitive goal this calendar year was an own-goal from Venezuela’s Rolf Feltscher. In their last two matches, against Venezuela and Peru, they have fired in 33 shots without once finding the back of the net. And they’ve scored less than a goal per match over the course of the qualification campaign.
Gonzalo Higuain, Sergio Aguero, Paulo Dybala, Lucas Pratto, Mauro Icardi, Carlos Tevez and now Dario Benedetto have all started in attack at least once yet have only scored three goals between them. Despite all the striking talent that Argentina have at their disposal, over a quarter of the 16 goals they have scored have come from defenders and defensive midfielders. Even three of Messi’s four were from set pieces.
But it is not just about the attack. Argentina’s approach to the qualification campaign has been so haphazard that there has been scant opportunity for players to form genuine partnerships in any sector of the pitch. The personnel and style of football has changed so regularly that this is still a side who lack even the foundations of coherence.
Given time to work, Sampaoli should be able to get a lot more out of the squad but that work will only have a clear purpose if victory is secured on Tuesday. Ecuador have not been as effective as they usually are on home soil during this qualifying process, and it is surely impossible for Argentina to again create as many chances as they did against Peru without this time receiving reward for it. But if not, the unthinkable could become reality.
