Mexico have advanced to the knockout stages of the World Cup for the seventh tournament in a row. They managed to qualify as runner-up in their group, despite defeat to Sweden in the final game.
The story of Group F told a sorry tale for Germany who wound uprooted to the bottom, and saw Mexico finish behind the Swedes and ahead of South Korea in the table.
The mighty Brazil lie in wait in the last sixteen and under current manager, Tite, they have looked well oiled and, perhaps more importantly given what happened at the last World Cup, mentally stronger.
However, on their day, Mexico still have the players to cause Brazil some problems, and possibly to cause an upset, but it would require each player to be at the top of their game and a few of those in yellow to have an off day.
An upset it would certainly be, and Brazil are overwhelming favourites with the bookies who believe Mexico will fall at the fourth game as they have for the past seven World Cups.
We tipped Hirving Lozano to shine at this World Cup, and so far he has not disappointed.
Before the tournament started we picked out the high profile group game against Germany, and a possible last sixteen tie against Brazil, as the PSV Eindhoven attacker’s chances to shine on a big stage against big teams.
He scored the only goal in that opening group game against the defending champions, and it played a big part in their subsequent exit. The predicted second place finish which would pit them against the likely winners of Group E — Brazil — also panned out as expected, and he’ll get the second show with the world watching.
Though the guess that they would finish second was correct, no one saw Sweden topping the group in the place of Germany. Sweden were the only side to trouble Mexico, too, and surprised everyone when they put three past them in the final game of the group stage. Luckily for Juan Carlos Osorio’s side, South Korea were holding off German attacks in the other game, and eventually scored two of their own.
This prevented the unthinkable scenario of Mexico winning their first two games but still being eliminated after all the fixtures had been played.
The toughest test of all awaits them in the first knockout game and, unlike Germany, Brazil look like the real deal. They have shown nothing to suggest that they didn’t warrant their tag as tournament favourites, with only a slight stumble against Switzerland spoiling their record so far.
But it’s that stumble which will give Mexico hope, and a couple of flaws which Lozano, Javier Hernandez, and Carlos Vela could take advantage of may emerge.
If the Mexico defence can do a job at the other end, keeping Neymar quiet, or more importantly, stopping one of the players of the tournament so far — Philippe Coutinho, then their attackers can get to work on Brazil’s back line.
The introduction of Filipe Luis at left back in place of the injured Marcelo hasn’t weakened Brazil, and if anything it’s solidified their defence. But if Mexico could try to get Carlos Vela working down that side, cutting inside onto his stronger left foot against Luis’s weaker right, then that could provide one avenue towards Hernandez and towards goal.
Brazil have also changed things up at right back, with Fagner coming in for Danilo and impressing enough to keep his place, despite the Manchester City man’s return to fitness. Lozano will give him his biggest test so far, however, and it now goes without saying that it’s down the left flank that Mexico could look to find some joy.
Mexico’s sporadic pressing could also provide a problem for Brazil, and though Thiago Silva has had a good tournament so far, if put under pressure he could crack as he did in 2014.
By now we know what to expect from Brazil, and the quality they have in their ranks has been on display from the moment Tite took over during South American qualifying.
This game, then, won’t be about what can be learnt from Brazil, it will be about what Mexico have to teach.
Their quest to reach the fifth game of a World Cup faces another considerable obstacle, but watching them attempt to overcome it could provide more entertainment in this already astounding tournament.
