Colombia are as good a choice as any as a dark horse for Russia 2018. Statistics-based rating systems Elo and SPI both rank them as the ninth-best team at the tournament, while they are 10th or 11th favourites to lift the trophy depending on your choice of bookmaker.
And there are other reasons to believe that Jose Pekerman’s side could at least be capable of matching their run to the quarter-finals in Brazil four years ago -- the furthest Colombia have ever progressed in a World Cup.
The group-stage draw was relatively kind, placing them alongside Poland, Senegal and Japan in Group H. While they would almost certainly face a difficult last-16 tie regardless of whether they finished first or second, they would not necessarily be outmatched by potential opponents Belgium and England.
Colombia also benefit from historically unprecedented stability in the dugout. This is not the first time that the same man has led them into consecutive World Cups -- Francisco Maturana was in charge in both 1990 and 1994 -- but it is the first time that a coach has remained in charge without pause between the two tournaments. Pekerman, who took over in 2012, is the longest serving coach in national team history.
Primary among his tasks over the last four years has been the regeneration of the squad. He has a solid core of six likely starters among the 10 members of his group who were involved in Brazil four years ago, but there are 13 new faces. He has, though, given himself a decent opportunity to assess each of them up close. Of the outfield players, only Johan Mojica has less than five caps.
Neither do Colombia necessarily look weakened by that turnover. Pekerman arguably has better options in the centre of defence than he did four years ago and comparable ones in midfield and up front.
James Rodriguez is still undoubtedly Colombia’s key player. He was directly involved in 10 of the 17 goals they scored in the matches he played a part in during qualifying, as well as participating heavily in their build up play through midfield. After a couple of frustrating final years at Real Madrid, he comes into the tournament on the back of an impressive debut season at Bayern Munich.
For the first time at a World Cup, Rodriguez will be paired with Colombia’s all-time top goalscorer, Radamel Falcao Garcia. The Monaco striker missed out through injury last time out and is ready to make up for lost time.
Add that to the fact that Colombia have drawn with Brazil and Spain and defeated France over the course of the last year, and they look set for a good tournament.
It can, though, be tempting to cherry pick such results to make a case. While Colombia are a team who always remain competitive in matches -- they have only lost by more than a single goal on four occasions during Pekerman’s 74 matches in charge -- that does quite often result in draws, especially recently. The only teams other than France that they have beaten in their last 20 internationals are Venezuela, Paraguay, Bolivia, Ecuador, Cameroon and China.
There is a degree of conservatism to their approach that does sometimes seem to hold them back from going all the way. Pekerman can be too passive in making changes to alter the flow of matches that seem to be drifting away from them. There are also question marks over the form of goalkeeper David Ospina, and a suspicion that central defenders Yerry Mina and Davinson Sanchez are perhaps a bit too similar to form a coherent partnership.
But the positives do seem to outweigh the negatives. Pekerman’s side will certainly be ones to watch to Russia.
