Momentum is a big thing when it comes to the play-offs, even if the existence of it is often illusory rather than reality. Whether Fulham have actually lost momentum or not, and whether Derby now have it, doesn't really matter. But the fact it's being talked about does, because it could shape the way this game is approached on both sides.
The Rams have done a smashing job of convincing themselves that their tide has turned, less than three weeks after fans were happy to throw in the towel on a top-six finish following three straight defeats. The switch to a three-man defence and the inclusion Cameron Jerome over David Nugent in attack has since yielded seven points from the final three matches.
So the mood has completely flipped, yet the evidence to back up the renewed positivity isn't overly convincing. Derby struggled for an hour of their 3-1 win over Cardiff, until the pressure of the promotion race took its toll on the Bluebirds defence. Then came a 1-1 hiding at Aston Villa, before they wrapped things up with 4-1 win over gung-ho Barnsley.
Still, there's no denying that Derby will approach this game with a spring in their step and there's some appeal in the 13/5 available on them to win the first half. If there's anything in the momentum angle they talk about, then surely they have an obligation to press home that advantage from the first whistle and not allow Fulham to regain any encouragement.
If Derby do go ahead, then it's all eyes on the Fulham response. The Cottagers have only been behind for 111 minutes in the last 30 hours of match action with more than two-thirds of that trailing time arriving on the final day at Birmingham, where a 3-1 defeat burst the bubble of a 24-match unbeaten run.
Fulham did preserve their run of scoring in 24 consecutive league matches, though, and against opposition with five players aged 31 or older, you'd fancy the younger possession-based team to grow into this and their endeavours to be rewarded eventually. With that in mind, stick a point on the Derby/Draw half time/full time at 16/1.
Recommended bets:
1pt Derby to win the first half at 13/5
1pt Derby/Draw half time/full time at 16/1
