Sunday at Euro 2020 brings Group A to a conclusion with Italy hosting Wales in Rome and Switzerland playing Turkey in Baku.
Italy have impressed all onlookers in their two games so far and with qualification assured, I expect Roberto Mancini may ring some changes.
Giorgio Chiellini limped off in the last game and will not be risked, while it will afford midfield maestro Marco Veratti to get a few minutes under his belt on return from injury ahead of a last 16 tie. Ciro Immobile will be screaming to start though in his quest for the tournament Golden Boot after scoring in each of the two games so far. The Lazio hitman is 11/4 to score first and 6/5 to add a third of the competition.
It will take a plight of huge misfortune for Wales not to be in the knockout phases for the second successive time. They have lost just one of their last fifteen of their competitive internationals, indicating how difficult they have become to beat.
Robert Page’s team selection will be important as he may be minded to manage Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsay who have both had injury interrupted seasons. They have had two tough games in intense heat in Baku which would have taken its toll and there is no doubt Italy have the deeper squad.
The Azzurri are 1/2 for the victory and maximum points in the group, something they achieved in qualifying while Wales have been nibbled into 6/1 and the mutually beneficial draw is 3/1.
Although the defence is set for a shake up, Italy will still keep it tight and odds against quotes of 6/5 to win to nil make small appeal in a game that requires team news before confident selections can be considered. A defeat for Wales and victory for Switzerland over Turkey in Baku, plus a five-goal swing, is the only way Wales will lose the runner-up spot in the group, although I expect the Swiss to keep up their end of the bargain.
Team news is no issue here as both teams will be at their strongest with a loss for either side signalling the end of their summer, while a draw will probably see both sides head home too.
Turkey have looked very lethargic in both games so far and only a victory will suffice to give them any hope of making it out of the group. There have been very few positives to be garnered from 180 minutes though and star striker Burak Yilmaz looks to be feeling the effects of a busy title winning season in France. The partisan Baku crowd were quickly silenced last Wednesday and the same could be in the offing on Sunday.
The Swiss will be hoping four points will suffice for third place qualification. They have match winners in Xherdan Shaqiri, Mario Gavranovic and Breel Embolo, scorer of their only goal so far.
I will side with the Swiss to at least treble their scoring tally here and win by two goals (2-0, 3-1 etc) at 15/8.
Also, in a game with lots at stake and pressure applied, tempers may flare and odds of 11/10 about 40 or more booking points is of interest.