Euro 2020 Betting Preview: Hungary Can Make It A Tough Night For Germany

Matt Hulmes breaks down the best bets across the final day of Group E and Group F at Euro 2020
18:13, 22 Jun 2021

Recommendations 

1pt Sweden to win @ 15/8

1pt Isak to score anytime @ 5/2

0.5pt Isak score and Sweden win @ 4/1

1pt Draw HT/Spain FT @ 3/1

1pt France v Portugal Draw @ 2/1

1pt Hungary +2 @ 11/8

By the end of Wednesday evening we will know the line-up for the last sixteen for Euro 2020, but first we have four games to decipher. 

At 5pm, Group E will come to a close and all four could still top the table. Sweden are already through and will take on Poland in St Petersburg while Spain play Slovakia in Seville and the calculators will be out in force to fathom who needs what during the 90 minutes. 

Spain are still odds-on to go through as group winners at 5/6 with Sweden 5/4, Poland 16/1 and Slovakia 20/1, but it is all to play for in the ‘to qualify’ market. 

Luis Enrique’s men are as short as 1/12 to head through but it’s odds-on that the other pair fail with Poland 6/4 and Slovakia 9/4 to book knockout football at the weekend but they each know victory confirms it.

Poland gave themselves a lifeline by drawing with Spain on Saturday. They were poor in their opening game when going down to ten men aided Slovakia but showed plenty of fight in Seville at the weekend. They will now need the quality to overcome a Sweden side yet to concede at the tournament.

Robert Lewandowski
Robert Lewandowski

Paolo Sousa’s men have not beaten Sweden since 1991 and must break that hoodoo to stay in the tournament. The market has Poland as slight favourites at 6/4 and their need is greater with Sweden 15/8 and the draw 12/5. 

Sweden could welcome back Juventus starlet Dejan Kilusevski (5/1 score anytime) who missed the opening game with Covid-19 and he could supply the impressive Alexander Isak with improved service. The Real Sociedad striker has done everything but score here but is 5/2 to score in this one.  

The Poles once again relied on Robert Lewandowski (5/4 to score, 3/1 first goalscorer) to get them out of trouble, but I think the Swedes are the value in this one.  

Spain have been wasteful in front of goal so far despite enjoying 85% possession versus Sweden and 76% against Poland, creating over thirty chances in 180 minutes. 

Sergio Busquet’s return gives them a huge boost in midfield and if it finally clicks, then Slovakia could be in for a hiding. They impressed against Poland and created enough chances to take something against Sweden, but they could easily be cut apart if they play too open against La Roja. They are 1/5 to win the game, 16/1 Slovakia and 11/2 the draw, which is not the worse price should their troubled shooting continue. 

It may take Spain until the second half to break the deadlock so a small play on draw at half time and Spain to win at 3/1 is the call.

With Gerard Moreno spurning a penalty, Ferran Torres may be restored to the line-up.

Ferran Torres
Ferran Torres

With Gerard Moreno spurning a penalty, Ferran Torres may be restored to the line-up. 

At 8pm, we have the small matter of Group F to wrap up which starts in a similar vein to Group E. Here France and Portugal lock horns in Budapest in a repeat of the Euro 2016 final while Germany host Hungary in Munich.

France are through with four points while Portugal will qualify if they don’t lose by more than three goals and Germany, who themselves need just a point, avoid defeat to Hungary who know nothing less than victory will suffice. 

Germany and France are both Evens to top the group and Portugal are 9/1l, while the Joachim Low’s team and reigning champions A Selecao are both 1/33 to qualify. 

Didier Deschamps may well ring a few changes among his strong squad and back themselves in the knockout stages whoever they play. Les Bleus are 5/4 to win the game while Portugal are 11/4 to bounce back from a 4-2 defeat in Germany. The mutually beneficial draw at 2/1 is a big player, especially as Fernando Santos will set up to be tighter at the back after shipping four goals on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Hungary have been totally written off at 16/1 to beat Germany despite holding France at the weekend and keeping Portugal at bay for 82 minutes. Germany finally showed up against Portugal but you’d be a brave man to take 1/6 they follow it up tonight. 

Plenty of key men missed training on Monday too with Ilkay Gundogan, Thomas Muller, Mat Hummels and Serge Gnabry rated doubtful. 

The Hungarians are 11/8 in receipt of a two-goal start (still a winner if they lose by a single goal) and I expect them to make it a difficult night for Die Mannschaft.

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