Euro 2020 Betting Preview: Value Found Despite England's Short Price Vs Denmark

England face Denmark in the Euro 2020 semi-final at Wembley
18:02, 06 Jul 2021

Recommendations

1pt Draw HT/England FT @ 7/2

A second major tournament semi-final in three years (three if you include the Nations League) for Gareth Southgate and his England side provides a massive opportunity to send the Three Lions through to their first major final for 55 years, since the nation's greatest sporting day back in 1966.

It is Denmark who stand in their way. The shock 1992 winners of this competition have had a rollercoaster three weeks in this tournament, losing their talisman in the most horrific of circumstances after just 42 minutes and basically in a knockout situation from their third group game. 

The Danes should be applauded for their reaction to those early events and since sticking four past Russia, they have not looked back, earning plenty of plaudits and fans in the interim. There is no doubt they are the neutral's choice in this and every foreseeable fixture, but I saw some signs of this emotional ride fading in the closing stages against the Czech Republic with players looking leggy and exhausted. 

Pierre-Emile Hojberg appeared to be running on fumes in the midfield while captain and leader Simon Kjaer looked to take on board another injury late in the game and will be patched up to start. The return of Yussuf Poulsen is a positive while Kaspaer Dolberg and Mikkel Damsgaard, who replaced Eriksen, have been fantastic. 

One of their main attacking threats has come from the right boot of Joakim Maehle on the left side. The Atalanta wing-back has scored twice and delivered a peach of a cross to set up Dolberg for the winner at the weekend. Southgate will be wary of his threat, but I expect he will spend much more time running back towards his own goal to cover England’s flying wingers. 

Kasper Hjulmand’s side had a tough trip to Baku in humid conditions which will have taken plenty out of them, while England looked fresh at the end of the Ukraine match as Southgate once again utilised his strong squad. That should have a big bearing on the outcome of this came.

DenmarkcelebratingatEuro2020jpg

It is now over eleven hours since England conceded a goal and confidence has never been higher, but the note of caution remains that they have never progressed beyond a semi-final for fifty-five years. The last time they did though, was at Wembley in front of a home crowd and home comforts have certainly been a positive in this competition. 

England are warm favourites at 8/11 to win in ninety minutes and a very short 1/3 to book a final spot by any means. The Dames are 4/1 for the match and 9/4 to qualify for the final of a competition they famously won in 1992. The draw in ninety minutes and the need for extra time is 13/5, with England 8/1 to win in ET, Denmark 20/1 and both teams are 11/1 to win on penalties.

The way the tournament has evolved, the 13/8 about England winning to nil will be popular while those who fancy an open game with goals will look at over 2.5 goals at 11/8 or England to win and three or more goals in the game at 11/5.

There are a trio of players on three goals for the tournament. Harry Kane is 6/5 to score in his third successive game (3/1 to open the scoring) while Raheem Sterling is 9/4 for a fourth goal of the tournament (9/2 score first).

As for the Danes, Kasper Dolberg has been their go to man and he is 4/1 for a fourth goal of the competition (9/1 score first). 

It could be a cagey opening, but I expect the freshness in the England squad with the talent on the Three Lions bench to come on strong in the second half. The 7/2 about a draw at half-time and England winning at full-time looks a decent play.

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