This weekend fight fans will be treated to one of the best boxing match-ups of the year when Gervonta Davis, 28-0 (26), and Ryan Garcia, 23-0 (19), go head-to-head in Las Vegas.
The Americans put both of their undefeated records on the line in a battle between two of the sport’s brightest stars; a breathtaking contest that pits Garcia’s unmatched speed against Davis’ unrivalled brawn and punching prowess.
Ahead of this weekend’s blockbuster bout, we’ve taken a look at the Betfred markets to see if we can pick out some betting value.
As the more experienced fighter, both in terms of age and number of contests, in general and at world level, it comes as no surprise that Gervonta Davis enters the bout as the favourite. However, considering the quality of his opponent, we didn't expect him to be favoured quite so overwhelmingly.
Although we don’t think this fight qualifies as a true 50/50 and believe that Davis should come away from the encounter with his arm raised, the 4/11 on the Baltimore native outright isn’t really worth considering.
The 9/4 on Garcia is generous, especially considering ‘King-Ry’ has hardly put a foot wrong in 23 professional contests. He’s never faced anyone in Davis’ league however, and he certainly hasn’t stepped in with someone who can bang like the aptly named ‘Tank’.
To win on Points: 11/2
To win by KO/TKO/DQ/Technical Decision: 4/6
Davis has won 26 of his 28 professional encounters inside of the distance, meaning, with an eye-watering 92.86% knockout rate, he is easily one of the biggest punchers in boxing today. Since 2014, the southpaw has only been taken to the final bell once - a unanimous decision win over Isaac Cruz. Also, while his record is unblemished, Garcia has shown he can be dropped, as he was en route to victory against Luke Campbell in January 2021.
To win on Points: 15/2
To win by KO/TKO/DQ/Technical Decision: 10/3
So much has been said about the power in Davis’ fists, it’s easy to forget that Garcia himself is something of a KO specialist. The Californian has won 19 of his 23 professional contests by way of stoppage and carries an impressive knockout rate of 82.61%.
Davis hasn’t been officially knocked down in his career to date, but Leo Santa Cruz showed that he can be wobbled. We don’t think it’s likely but if you’re going to back Garcia, a stoppage win certainly isn’t beyond the realms of possibility.
Given his lightning quick hands, Garcia advocates might be tempted to back him to win on points but Davis isn’t an easy man to break down; he likes to dictate pace, boxes well at range and opting to fight him on the inside can be deadly.
Rounds 1-3: 11/2
Rounds 4-6: 10/3
Rounds 7-9: 18/5
Rounds 10-12: 8/1
Rounds 1-3: 14/1
Rounds 4-6: 10/1
Rounds 7-9: 10/1
Rounds 10-12: 20/1
This is where we personally think the value is. We like the look of Davis to win inside the distance but at 4/6 for the method of victory, those odds can be stretched if we can decide when it ends.
Stretching back to 2019, Davis’ last five knockout wins have come later than the sixth round and with Garcia arguably the best man he has faced to date, we’re going against an early finish. Expect a tight contest in the early to middle stanzas, with Davis beginning to pile on the pressure and end the younger fighter’s night between rounds 7-9. That can be backed at a handsome 18/5.
18+ | BeGambleAware | Odds Subject To Change