The beauty of having 173 runnings of the Grand National to sift through is that there is plenty of evidence of what exactly the perfect horse looks like and a likely winner.
It has produced plenty of stats and trends to follow so here is a breakdown of what to look out for when choosing your Grand National horses.
AGE
In the last quarter of a century, twenty winners have been aged 8-10. Forty-four seven years olds have tried since 2000 with none of them victorious. In fact, the last winner of that age group was back in 1940.
As for the elder statesmen, we had a trio of 11yo’s win from 2012-14 while four 12yo’s have triumphed since Red Rum’s famous third victory in 1977. The last teenager to win was back in 1923.
WEIGHT
As expected over a marathon trip, a lower weight is ideally preferred. Only Tiger Roll in 2019, Many Clouds in 2015 and Don’t Push It in 2010 have carried more than 11 stone to victory since 2005. Furthermore, only seven winners have carried that weight or more since 1988.
PREVIOUS FORM
Only 2 of the last 13 winners had previous experience of the Grand National and expanding on that, just 2 of the last 37 winners had won or been placed in the race previously, so look for those having their first taste of it.
8 of the last 13 winners had run between 10-14 times over fences so had plenty of experience, while six of the last 14 had run at the Cheltenham Festival, although only Tiger Roll since 1961 had won both.
In terms of more recent form, 13 of the last 16 winners had been placed in their most recent start, while 6 of the last 10 either won or were runner-up, so came into the race in decent form.
It also appears to be an advantage to have recent race fitness on your side as 28 of the last 30 winners had run in the previous 56 days.
FAVOURITES
Don’t be put off at backing a big, priced runner as Rule The World in 2016 at 33/1, Aurora’s Encore in 2013 at 66/1 or 2009 winner Mon Mome at 100/1 will testify. In fact, only six favourites have won in the last 37 runnings.
ORIGINS
Ireland have been dominating the jumps game on these shores in recent years and that is no different in the Grand National with four of the last five winners hailing from the Emerald Isle. They have saddled eight of the winners this century, while 17 of the last 22 winners (and 9 of the last 11) were bred in Ireland too.
SEX
There are a few leading mares in this year’s contest with the well backed Becher Chase winner Snow Leopardess heading the charge, ably assisted by Mount Ida and Court Maid, although you gave to go back to 1951 and Nickel Coin to find the last winning mare.
So, on the above trends, we are looking for a horse aged 8-10, who is carrying less than 11 stone, ran in the previous 56 days and ran first or second on their latest start, ideally French bred and not a mare and having their first start in the Grand National.
That leaves an idealists shortlist of: - De Rasher Counter, Kildisart, Top Ville Ben and Agusta Gold, all available at decent prices.
You can read our preview for Thursday's action at Aintree here.
*18+ | BeGambleAware
