How Fifth-Placed England Can Reach World Test Final Without Playing A Game

A run of incredible wins has led England to retain an outside chance of appearing in June’s World Test Championship
15:00, 17 Jan 2023

How can a team have played all of their games, sit in fifth place with a win rate of less than 50 per cent, and still have a chance to finish in the top two slots which would see them reach the final? Welcome to England’s 2021-23 World Test Championship campaign!

The historic series whitewash of Pakistan in December was England’s final participation of the current WTC campaign, and what a way to end the most rollercoaster period in recent history.

This season had begun with Chris Silverwood and Joe Root leading them to a run of one win in 17 Tests, including a 4-0 Ashes battering down under and a 1-0 defeat from a number of winning positions in the West Indies. It ended with ‘BazBall’, 500-run days, progressive declarations and a style of play being heralded the world over for its innovative tendencies.

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The run of incredible wins under Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes has led England to retain an outside chance of appearing in June’s World Test Championship final at Lord’s. It is a very slim chance, mind. 

The remaining series in the group phase of the WTC see India host Australia for four Tests in February and March, South Africa meet the West Indies in two matches over the same period and then Sri Lanka head to reigning champions New Zealand in March to round out the schedule with fixtures in Christchurch and Wellington.

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With a 46.97% points percentage, England would need India to be beaten 4-0 by Australia and Sri Lanka to lose both matches against New Zealand. Further to that, South Africa would have to gain no more than a pair of draws in their series with the Windies.

That scenario would be enough to drop India to 45.83%, Sri Lanka would slump to 44.44% and South Africa couldn’t achieve a points rate higher than 46.67%, promoting England three places to join Australia in the final. And with the Ashes series set to begin at Edgbaston in mid-June, the appetiser of a first ever World Test Championship final between the pair is almost too much to bear.

It will take quite the confluence of events to make it happen, though, with Australia never having previously won more than three Tests in a single series in India and the West Indies having lost 20 of their 30 clashes with South Africa, with 12 defeats, two draws and a single win coming in tours of the rainbow nation.

Whether England make it to the final or not – and it’s likely that they won’t – the Ashes series in the summer marks the beginning of their assault on the trophy in the 2023-25 edition. After hosting the Aussies for five Tests, they will also meet India, New Zealand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the West Indies in the group phase of the tournament, the final of which is again scheduled to take place at Lord’s in June 2025.

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