Jermell Charlo doesn’t do underdog stories. The undisputed light middleweight champion has mostly had things his own way in the pro ranks. Tony Harrison beat him in 2018 but Charlo was still the favourite in that fight. ‘Iron Man’ avenged the defeat in style with a knockout victory a year later. Charlo was the favourite once more when Brian Castano took him to a 2021 split draw. Again, the Lafayette stylist won a rematch by KO. In short, Charlo is the favourite whenever he fights. But not this time.
Were they the same weight, Charlo would still be the outsider when facing Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez. The Mexican is considered one of the best fighters on the planet and, until recently, he was the pound-for-pound king. But now consider this Saturday’s fight is taking place up at super middleweight, where ‘Canelo’ reigns as undisputed champion. Not only is Charlo going in with the best opponent he’s ever faced, but he’s fighting in a division 14 pounds above his natural weight.
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Despite a career spent as a front-runner, once cannot deny Charlo’s bravery. Taking a fight like this is a huge risk. Cynics will point to the financial incentive, with the American set to pick up his career-highest payday for the bout. But that doesn’t account for how much this bout could alter the course of his future.
Take the example of Amir Khan, another fighter who hopped through the weights to face ‘Canelo’. ‘King Khan’ was on a run of five welterweight wins between 2012 and 2015, taking in victories over former world champions Devon Alexander, Julio Diaz and Luis Collazo. But rather than manoeuvring for a crack at the 147lb crown, Khan packed on the pounds and faced Alvarez for the middleweight crown. His night ended via a brutal sixth-round knockout. Khan would go 3-2 in his final five fights, never again winning a world title or beating a top-level opponent.
It is this sort of dramatic downfall that Charlo risks on Saturday. He will actually be making an even bigger jump than Khan in terms of weight. While the Brit was often accused of being weak-chinned, Charlo has never been dropped. But he has also never taken a punch from a bona fide super middleweight. How he does will be the true test of how tall an order this fight is for him.
Can Charlo win? Of course he can. A talented athlete and a fine technician, there is a reason ‘Iron Man’ is the undisputed light middleweight champion. Were we still in Alvarez’s light middleweight era of a decade ago, Charlo would be the equal of any man ‘Canelo’ had beaten. But the Mexican has been in some deep waters since then. WBA light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol may have beaten Alvarez but it says a lot that it took a man of that size and skill to defeat him for the first time in a decade.
Charlo is unlikely to show ‘Canelo’ anything he hasn’t seen before. Khan was quicker. Floyd Mayweather was more elusive. The super middleweights and light heavyweights he has been boxing for the best part of a decade were more powerful. Yes, Charlo can win. But the chances of him succeeding where so many talented fighters have failed are slim.
This is where Charlo finds himself for the very first time. He is an underdog in the face of a fight nobody thinks he can win. But sometimes having their back up against a wall can bring unseen qualities out in a fighter. Maybe, just maybe, we’ll see a side of Jermell Charlo we have never encountered before. To beat ‘Canelo’, he’s going to need it.
*18+ | BeGambleAware | Odds Subject To Change
