Leeds Down, What Of Everton? Predicting The Premier League Basement Battle

We assess the remaining fixtures for the clubs between 16th-19th in the top flight
12:00, 03 May 2023

The Premier League relegation battle is as tight as it's ever been. Three clubs are separated on goal difference between 16th and 18th in the standings, Leicester City, Leeds United and Nottingham Forest, and each looks vulnerable to potential relegation.

While it looks like 20th-placed Southampton, six points from safety, have already been consigned to next season's Championship, Everton are just a point behind the aforementioned trio as the Toffees find themselves in another sticky situation.


With four matches to save their Premier League status, we assess the games to come for Leicester, Leeds, Nottingham Forest and Everton to judge who is most likely to go down.

Leicester City - 16th

Fulham (A) - Current position: 10th

Leicester's next fixture is a trip to Fulham, who have had an outstanding first year back in the Premier League. The Cottagers suffered a 2-1 defeat against Manchester City last time out but certainly gave the title chasers a good contest. It will be a tough fixture for the Foxes but they need a result more than Fulham. Leicester win.

Liverpool (H) - Current position: 5th

Liverpool have been on an upward trajectory in recent weeks, rediscovering their rhythm and scoring a lot of goals in the process. The Reds will have too much firepower for the Foxes so it is likely they will take nothing from this match. Liverpool win.

Newcastle United (A) - Current position: 3rd

Another tough fixture for Dean Smith’s side as they head up north to Champions League-chasing Newcastle, who will be looking to cement their place in the top four under Eddie Howe. The Magpies have been free-scoring of late and on home soil there are not many tougher places for Leicester to go at this stage of the season. Another defeat.

West Ham United (H) - Current position: 15th

West Ham aren't completely out of danger but they have a four-point cushion on Leicester and co, with David Moyes’ team showing a lot more fight in recent weeks. The Hammers have a game in hand on the teams beneath them and there is a good chance they could be safe from danger when this final day fixture rolls around, leaving Leicester with it all to play for. Leicester will have a great chance of three points here. Foxes for three.

Projected final points total: 36 points

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Leeds United - 17th

Manchester City (A) - Current position: 1st

Leeds will be heading to the Etihad Stadium with a new manager on Saturday with Sam Allardyce taking charge of their remaining four fixtures to try to save them from the drop. City are back in front in the title race and it is hard to see them slipping up with the finish line in sight. Expect Leeds to concede a few in this one.

Newcastle United (H) - Current position: 3rd

Not the best double header for Leeds, facing the reigning champions followed by Champions League hopefuls Newcastle. The Magpies attack are in fine form and will further torment Leeds’ back line. Another defeat for the Yorkshire outfit.

West Ham United (A) - Current position: 15th

Similarly to Leicester, Leeds could be facing West Ham at a point where they might have confirmed safety and, if that is the case, Leeds will need the three points more than the Hammers, who have had their own defensive problems this term. Leeds win.

Tottenham Hotspur (H) - Current position: 6th

This season-ender could make for box office entertainment with goals galore because both defences are dreadful. Spurs will likely be pushing for a place in the Champions League and every point is vital to them in the final weeks. They should have enough to beat Leeds.

Projected final points total: 33 points

Nottingham Forest - 18th

Southampton (H) - Current position: 20th

This game is huge for Steve Cooper’s side and is an absolute must-win. Southampton have been poor for much of the campaign and a packed out City Ground will play a huge part in this fixture for the Tricky Trees. Forest to get off to a flyer with three points.

Chelsea (A) - Current position: 12th

Usually a trip to Stamford Bridge would be a daunting one for most teams in the Premier League. This year, the Blues have been just as bad as those threatened with relegation. Forest won’t be fazed by the trip to west London and there is a good chance that they could leave the capital with at least a point. Draw.

Arsenal (H) - Current position: 2nd

Next up are title chasers Arsenal. Mikel Arteta’s side will head to the East Midlands still believing that they can snatch the title away from Manchester City and they will need to win every game left to give themselves any chance of being crowned the champions of England. Arsenal to win this one.

Crystal Palace (A) - Current position: 11th

Forest travel to south London on the final day and they will face a resurgent Crystal Palace under veteran coach Roy Hodgson. The Eagles are 10 points clear of Forest and by the time the two teams square up, the Eagles will likely have nothing to play for. Forest to wrap up safety with a win.

Projected final points total: 37 points


Everton - 19th

Brighton & Hove Albion (A) - Current position: 8th

Everton will look to build on their spirited performance at Leicester but they face a Brighton side still fighting to play European football next year. This will be a much tougher fixture than the draw with the Foxes. Brighton win.

Manchester City (H) - Current position: 1st

Next up is the reigning champions and Pep Guardiola’s side are leading the way for the Premier League title. As previously mentioned, it is hard to see City dropping many, if any, points in the final weeks of the season. Man City to win.

Wolverhampton Wanderers (A) - Current position: 14th

Wolves had spent much of the campaign in the relegation conversation but Julen Lopetegui has managed to steer them away from danger, with seven points separating them from the bottom three. Wolves will likely be safe by the time these two teams meet and Everton will be desperate for three points. A win for the Toffees at Molineux.

AFC Bournemouth (H) - Current position: 13th

Another side who were tipped for relegation at the beginning of term, Gary O’Neil has worked wonders to get the Cherries nine points clear of the drop zone with four games to go. His players will likely be on the beach by the time this final day clash rolls around, which could work to Everton’s advantage as their fate could come down to the events of the last day of the season. Everton to win.

Projected final points total: 35 points

Based on these predictions it is likely that Leeds United will end the season in 19th with a total of 33 points and that will largely be down to their terrible defence and a lack of leadership stemming from the boardroom. The third side to join Leeds and Southampton in the Championship next year will be either Everton or Leicester City, most likely the former. This relegation battle is most certainly going to rage on until the bitter end and it is going to be tight between Leicester and Everton for that third spot with a one-way ticket to the Championship.

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