Big-match pedigree and Wembley experience are two big plusses when it comes to weighing up any quartet of candidates in the EFL play-offs, so Lincoln look a decent bet to clinch promotion from League Two, having already lifted the Checkatrade Trophy at the national stadium only a month ago.
The Imps have been on an incredible journey under the much-heralded Cowley brothers, winning the National League title last season alongside an extraordinary FA Cup run in which they bridged gaps of two, three and four divisions to dispose of Oldham, Ipswich and Burnley.
So a mini-knockout tournament against familiar opposition won't hold any fears. Their playing style is ingrained, and they’ve imposed it on the opposition increasingly and more consistently as the season has progressed, most probably due to the unrivalled work they do on strength and conditioning.
The Imps come up against a tidy Exeter side in the semi-finals and the Devon outfit won’t be easy to shake off. But Paul Tisdale has been chopping and changing systems more than he would have liked in recent weeks due to mounting defensive injuries. He copes with such misfortune brilliantly but it has to take its toll eventually.
The Grecians pride themselves on control through possession and take great care to reach the final third with quality rather than urgency, as a fourth-place finish from a 51 per cent shot ratio would testify. However, a heavy focus on the process isn’t necessarily suited to high stakes knockout football.
Last season, they had Ollie Watkins and David Wheeler among their ranks but made heavy weather of a 6-5 aggregate victory over Carlisle before coming up short against a limited Blackpool side at Wembley, so the individual quality provided by Jayden Stockley this time around might not be enough.
Exeter control games and have admirable staying power when the tide is against them but you'd still fancy Lincoln to produce more key moments inside the 18-yard box over the two legs. Unlike Exeter, they've developed a culture of making something happen when it really matters.
The other semi-final sees outright favourites Coventry lock horns with Notts County. The bookies expect the Sky Blues to progress, despite the Magpies finishing two points better off over 46 matches, and there’s value in the wily and intuitive Kevin Nolan outwitting the more conservative Mark Robins.
It's been a momentous season for Coventry, culminating with a club record points total (75) and a first top-six finish in any division since 1970. But you do worry about the rollercoaster they've been on up to this point and a campaign of extreme highs and lows might just catch up with them.
At their best, Cov are dogged and difficult to break down but their last 11 matches have produced 44 goals against mostly bottom-half opposition, 19 of them going in at the wrong end - and that sample includes the convenient 0-0 draw they played out with beleaguered Morecambe on the final day.
Pragmatically, Robins had every right to settle for a point against the relegation-haunted Shrimps but the manner in which it unfolded hints at a few frailties. Contrast it with the killer instinct Lincoln brought to the Ricoh Arena 11 days earlier when a point would have also suited both teams.
Coventry went into that game with an extra day in their legs but Lincoln were taking no prisoners, grabbing the lead three times in the opening 45 minutes on the way to a 4-2 success. As markers go, it was provocative in the extreme but that's the type of masculine attitude that serves team well in these winner-takes-all contests.
Notts County have tailed-off gradually over the course of the season but Nolan won't be remotely concerned by that. He deals in decisive contributions, just like he did as a player. The Liverpudlian has twice been promoted via the play-offs twice under Sam Allardyce and the Magpies can only benefit from that experience.
Recommended bets:
1pt Lincoln to win promotion at 3.50 (general)
1pt Lincoln and Notts County to qualify at 3.75 (Betway)
