It is now or never for Chile in their hopes of reaching next year’s World Cup. Ahead of the two final rounds of fixtures, the reigning Copa America champions not only find themselves outside of the four automatic qualification places but also a point shy of fifth and the playoff against New Zealand that it would bring.
It has been a disappointing and inconsistent campaign for La Roja, whose only consecutive victories came in their first two matches of the cycle. Just five more have followed and one of those was won in the courtroom rather than on the pitch. They have lost three of their last four fixtures, including disastrous defeats at home to Paraguay and away to Bolivia last month.
The pressure is now very much on ahead of their final two matches at home to Ecuador on Thursday and then away to Brazil next Tuesday.
Argentina and Peru are Chile’s primary rivals. They play each other on Thursday and given that one or both of them will therefore drop some points, two wins would at the very least secure Chile fifth place. Four points might get them there on goal difference if one of Argentina or Peru only picks up three points and would definitely do so if either of them picks up two or less. In that latter circumstance, three points might even do it.
It is not a terrible position to be in, but Chile would obviously prefer to have a bit more margin for error, especially so in light of some selection worries in midfield ahead of the decisive fixtures.
Charles Aranguiz is out injured, while Pablo Hernandez is carrying a knock that will almost certainly rule him out of at least the Ecuador match. Arturo Vidal missed Bayern Munich’s weekend draw but should be okay. With Marcelo Diaz left out of the squad due to a drop in form there is much for coach Juan Antonio Pizzi to ponder.
Pizzi’s work is understandably under scrutiny. The Argentinian has never sought popularity and has consistently left fan favourites out of his selections. But now that he doesn’t have results to defend his position, criticism has intensified. In recent days, a series of scathing messages have been scrawled on the walls of the national-team training centre. One read: “Pizzi, you continue to kill La Roja.”
Russia 2018 had been viewed as the last opportunity for Chile’s golden generation, winners of the last two Copa America tournaments and finalists at this summer’s Confederations Cup, to better their last-16 eliminations in 2010 and 2014. Now they might not even qualify. If blame is to be apportioned, it is far more likely to fall on Pizzi than the players.
The reality is a bit more nuanced. Pizzi has certainly made alterations to Chile’s approach. Their periods of concentrated intensity are less frequent than in the past and there is more emphasis on control of both possession and space. But with an ageing squad and few quality replacements coming through, it could be argued that those adjustments were necessary.
Chile have performed very well in knockout competitions under Pizzi’s command but qualification results have been poor and so his legacy will be decided over the course of next week. He will either go down in history as the coach who led Chile to the Copa America Centenario or as the one who oversaw their failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup.
A strong victory over Ecuador on Thursday is vital if it isn’t to be the latter.
