Could this year’s draft match the historic 1983 season’s that saw six passers selected in the first round?
When the UK wakes up tomorrow morning, five, possibly six, young men will have joined an exclusive club as the face of an NFL franchise. The professional football league’s teams begin their annual selection meeting tonight and quarterbacks are likely to feature heavily.
Over the last 10 years, teams have drafted an average of 2.7 passers in the opening round. Both 2011 and 2012 saw four selected, while 1999 was a banner year (in terms of number if not production). Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith were the first three players off the board for Cleveland (who pick first again this year), Philadelphia and the Bengals respectively, followed by Minnesota choosing Daunte Culpepper at 11 and Chicago picking Cade McNown at 12. Between the five 1999 quarterbacks, however, only one (McNabb) would reach the Super Bowl.
Contrast that with the record-setting 1983 Draft – Hall of Famers John Elway (1st pick, Baltimore), Jim Kelly (14th, Buffalo) and Dan Marino (27th, Miami) were joined in Round 1 by Todd Blackledge (Kansas), Tony Eason (New England) and Ken O’Brien (NY Jets). For 11 of the next 16 years, the AFC was represented by one of those passers in the Super Bowl (five for Elway with Denver, four for Kelly, one each for Marino and Eason). Even then, first-round selection was no guarantee of success, with just two victories coming from those 11 appearances.
After the excitement of hearing their name called tonight, that’s the mountain faced by Sam Darnold (USC), Josh Rosen (UCLA), Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma, Josh Allen (Wyoming), Louisville’s Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph from Oklahoma State.
The path from college football to the pros is never smooth. In 1998, Ryan Leaf was a can’t-miss prospect rivaling Peyton Manning for the No1 spot – Manning went on to be a five-time NFL MVP, Super Bowl XLI MVP and double Super Bowl winner in an 18-year career.
Leaf, however, started 21 games for San Diego and Dallas over three seasons, tossing 36 interceptions to just 14 touchdowns, gaining a reputation for a terrible attitude and an even worse work ethic and was out of football in 2002.
So, while the likes of Cleveland, NY Jets, Denver, Buffalo, Arizona will crown one of this year’s prospects as their QB of the future in Round 1 tonight, it really is a lottery as to who’ll turn into NFL stars.
“History tells you we'll be lucky if we get two to three that become franchise quarterbacks,” said NFL Network’s Draft guru Mike Mayock. “The two easiest evaluations I’ve had in the last eight to 10 years are Andrew Luck (2012) and Carson Wentz (2016) and that’s because everything checked off both on film and all the intangibles. Those guys walked and talked like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson... I don’t see anybody in this class that I get the same gut feel for.”
And as for the comparison between this year’s crop and the Class of ’83? Gil Brandt, who from 1960-89 was one of the architects of ‘America’s Team’, the Dallas Cowboys, isn’t sold.
“I don’t see that kind of high side for this group of quarterbacks,” he said. “It’s pretty hard to forecast Hall of Fame careers for any of these guys, although I think all of them could potentially be good players.”
You can watch the Draft live at NFL.com or on Sky Sports Action from 12.30am tonight.
