Our Expert Tipster Predicts A Cagey Affair In The Championship Play-Off Final As Fulham Face Aston Villa

Our Expert Tipster Predicts A Cagey Affair In The Championship Play-Off Final As Fulham Face Aston Villa
18:05, 25 May 2018

Steve Bruce was forced to cut a 'feisty' training session short on Tuesday because his Aston Villa players were snapping into tackles and getting a little too carried away by the competition for places. His concern wasn't anybody getting hurt, more the fear that this band of highly-seasoned pros might be overcooked by Saturday.

The intensity was too much, too soon, so Bruce deemed it necessary to put them back on the leash. And that should serve as stark warning to Fulham about what to expect here because this isn't a team that's going to freeze on the big stage or be overwhelmed by what's at stake. In terms of previous Wembley appearances, the Midlanders outnumber the Cottagers by 59 to 2.

That landslide isn't all down to 37-year-old John Terry. Eleven of the 14 possible starters in the Villa ranks have played at the national stadium before, 10 of whom have sampled both victory and defeat, while six have been involved in play-off finals. Bruce himself returns for the fourth time in three years, having won this fixture two years ago with Hull.

So Fulham might dominate ball and territory, as they always do, but that doesn't guarantee serenity where it matters most: in both penalty boxes. The come-from-behind 2-1 aggregate win over Derby went some way towards easing concerns about mental fragility but it's no small matter that they required 111 minutes to level things up.

Villa kept two clean sheets in their semi-final, against a Middlesbrough side that had netted 27 goals in their previous 14 matches, restricting them to just two shots on target across the two legs. They were in control throughout, against stronger opposition, and never seemed remotely anxious at any stage, so they appeal as underdogs here.

The 1-0 correct score has copped in five out of 11 finals since Wembley re-opened in 2007, a bet landed three times by outsiders. Villa might create fewer chances from open play but they pose the bigger threat at set plays. If they find the breakthrough at any stage, no matter how early, they are streetwise enough to close the game out.

Recommended bets:

1pt Aston Villa to win at 5/2

1pt Aston Villa 1-0 correct score at 8/1

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