The Stage - The decider. 110km around Nice to decide the winner of Paris-Nice.
The Route - 14 kilometres of false flat to begin with and they’re about the only non-climbing or descending for the day. Heading north west up the M6202, the riders take in a false flat that head towards Saint-Martin-du-Var before the start of the proper climbing today. The Côte de Levens (6.2km at 5.8%). The intermediate sprint of the day is in the town of Levens, tantalisingly placed so close to the start to influence the general classification given the bonuses on offer.
There is then a seesaw doubleheader of climbs - Côte de Chateauneuf, which is 5.4 kilometres and averages 4.4%, and the Col de Calaïson – 6.3 kilometres at 4.4%. – before a run through L'Escarne and then the descent through the D21 to what’s arguably the day’s toughest climb, the Côte De Peille.
6.6 kilometres and at 6.8%, it’s the toughest test of the day and a proper alpine climb, with twists and turns that make escapes around the corner a possibility with less than 100 meters advantage. There’s also plenty of change in the gradient, with early sections of 9% and even 12%. The descent, on similar roads, is likely to be even more challenging than the climb and there’s the added spice of a sprint that takes place in La Turbie.
The Finish - They then turn right to hit the Col D’Eze from it’s alternate side, changing it from a 7.7-kilometre climb at 5.5% to a 1.6km wall that averages 8.1%. The descent of the D’Eze is not like the Peille, wide and open on well-surfaced roads, and chasing can be quite tricky.
They finally hit flat roads in Nice, although that’s just for a kilometre or so before the Col des Quatre Chemins, 5.5kms at 5.5%. There is then a fast descent into Nice although it punctuated by many twists and turns as the amp shows. for the traditional finish, with the last chance to get some sort of gap – 400 meters at 6% in the final kilometre before a flat finish.
The Weather - Wet, which is going to be treacherous again as many riders found out to their cost yesterday, although thankfully all the riders ended out being fine. There’s 2157 meres of descending today and a 12mph wind coming from the North East.
4.png)
The Contenders - There are five riders within 27 seconds of the lead and bonuses of 10, 6 and 4 over the line for the first three on the stage; There are also two bonus intermediate seconds of 3,2 and 1 seconds all packed within 110 kilometres. It is overwhelmingly likely that this is fought out by the leading contenders for the overall win.
Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step) probably has too much ground to make to win overall but this territory suits him a million times more than Valdeblore La Colmiane and there are multiple situations where he can take the win today.
BMC’s Dylan Teuns rode a fantastic race to finish second behind the super winner Simon Yates yesterday and the Belgian, who hasn’t looked back since taking three tours at the backend of last season, ought to relish every second of this terrain.
Bahrain-Merida’s Ion Izaguirre was one of few riders to animate the climb early yesterday and he arguably deserved to finish second given his efforts in trying to stick with Yates. A fine descender in the wet too, he can use his brother tactically and they pair of them will surely try to go solo or ride in tandem with each other.
Simon Yates (Mitchelton-Scott) was set up brilliantly by Roman Kreuziger and Kreuziger will have just one job tomorrow; Make sure Yates wins the yellow jersey. Yates was the best climber yesterday and showed pure power to win but he’s a capable one-day racer too, he took the GP Miguel Indurain last year and is more than capable.
Tim Wellens (Lotto-Soudal) produced an incredible ride to hang in there and finish fifth yesterday, and this is much more home turf for the Belgian than a long and steady climb. Amongst the fastest finisher in the Top 10, he’s finished fourth, eight and second already this week and took the overall for the Ruta Del Sol too.
Marc Soler (Movistar) fought well to limit his losses and is continuing to progress at a rate of knots; He was third in this stage last year and should go well again. Bora’s Patrick Konrad has finished seventh, 12th, seventh and sixth in the stages that suit him this week and shapes very much like Wellens. Sergio Henao’s chances of defending the title for Sky are slim perhaps although he does have one of the strongest teams in the race.
Astana lost the yellow jersey with Sanchez cracking although Jakob Fuglsang went well, first in trying to limit his losses and then coming back up to finish fast for ninth on the stage. He ought to have a lot of freedom here and that makes him incredibly dangerous as an overall contender.
