A brilliant weekend of horse racing lies ahead with competitive action at Warwick and Kempton in front of the TV cameras.
We have two big field handicaps in the Lanzarote Hurdle and Classic Chase to decipher while small field graded races offer something different for those who like short priced favourites. Everybody is catered for.
1.50 WARWICK – COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Paul Nicholls has won the last two renewals of the Hampton Novices Chase with favourites and it is hard to look beyond COMPLETE UNKNOWN giving him the hat-trick.
He landed the EBF final at Sandown last March and was fifth in the staying handicap hurdle on Betfair Chase day at Haydock in November before getting his chasing career off to the best start at Ffos Las three weeks ago. He is a heavy ground bumper winner who looks set to be at home in conditions, which may count against The Goffer and Gentleman At Arms, whose best efforts came on better ground.
Galia Des Liteaux would be a danger of jumping better than at Kempton where she nearly fell twice before being pulled up and Warwick’s famous five fences down the back are a true jumping test.
It is COMPLETE UNKNOWN for me and although short, you could pop him in a double with the same yards Pic D’Orhy in the Silviniaco Chase at Kempton (2.05)
PIC D’ORHY won the Pendil Novices Chase over track and trip last February and again beat Millers Bank in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon last month in a dominant front running display. A bit of a slow learner, he has now won his last three completed chase starts and is at his peak, which can’t be said about the rest.
Paint The Dream has never won outside of handicap company but was a fair fourth in the Charlie Hall behind Bravemansgame whilst Saint Calvados was very headstrong at Ascot when behind Coole Cody in a match. Although high class on his day, he needs to settle while Clondaw Castle (fourteen months) and Angels Breath (three years) have long layoffs to overcome.
It could be a tough task for the rest to catch PIC D’ORHY and it looks a solid Paul Nicholls double who started the week with a four-timer at Taunton
The Leamington Novices’ Hurdle has had some high class winners down the years with the likes of The New One and Willoughby Court going on to Ballymore success at the Festival after scoring here.
This year's contest looks a high quality renewal with all seven runners winning on their most recent starts and just 8lb on official ratings separates them.
Ginny’s Destiny won over track and trip beating Mexico by eight lengths while Grey Dawning was a well backed winning favourite of a competitive looking Kempton handicap hurdle over Christmas. Knowsley Road has two odds on success at Chepstow on his CV but the form is questionable while Snake Roll and Givega have both won both their hurdle starts with minimum fuss.
I think Givega has a big performance in him, but I am a really big fan of MOON HUNTER who looks overpriced at double figures.
Henry Daly had to rule out his star novice Hillcrest this season, but he may have found a replacement here. He sauntered to victory from a subsequent winner at Wetherby before reeling in previous winner Theatre Man on the run-in at Doncaster last time with the pair clear. It marked him down as a novice to follow and although both those runs and his points came on good ground, he is a big rangy sort who seems to hit the ground quite hard, so I would hope the easier conditions may even suit further.
With Betfred offering three places on this seven runner race (if six or more run) he looks a solid each way proposition.
2.40 KEMPTON – DUBROVNIK HARRY & PETIT TONERRE
A wide open renewal of the Lanzarote Hurdle where I like a couple.
First up is DUBROVNIK HARRY who was third to Complete Unknown in the EBF final at Sandown last March. I put him up this season as one to follow as I thought a mark of 128 was very exploitable over hurdles, so I was surprised connections went chasing so soon. There is no doubt that is where his future lies but I think he could tank through this and play a leading role, with big fields clearly holding no concerns for him. I’m convinced he is a lot better than his mark.
The same could be said for Outlaw Peter and Green Glory too who no doubt have more good days ahead of them, but the final pick goes to PETIT TONERRE.
He has travelled very strongly before coming off second best and having to give weight to those ahead of him in his two starts so far this season and a strong field like this with a good pace to aim at could see Jonjo O’Neill Jnr smuggle him into the contest and pounce late. At around 12/1 and with extra places available each way, I think he represents great value with the softer ground likely to suit too.
Three miles and five furlongs in heavy ground at Warwick for the Classic Chase is not for the faint hearted, but we know these conditions suit LORD DU MESNIL down to the ground as he is usually seen in those gruelling Haydock marathons.
He was last seen trying to give 3lb to subsequent Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) winner Le Milos at Bangor in November and was tackling top company at Auteuil in the spring. He is 3lb below his last winning mark, 4lb lower then when a close second in the Rowland Meyrick in 2021 and with conditions to suit, he is a major player.
Pulled up in that Bangor contest was Grumpy Charley. He had travelled well for most of that contest but fitness told in the closing stages on his seasonal return and he showed the benefit of that when winning at Newbury a fortnight ago. Up 6lb here, he looks like a stamina test will also suit and could also trouble the judge, but I will stick with a single selection in the Classic Chase.
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