It’s that time of year again - the Guineas returns to Newmarket and it’s a fascinating race as always. Of course this is a tremendous race because there is always uncertainty, even the shortest of favourites always have big question marks.
Some of the horses haven’t run this year, some have strengthened up from two to three much better, some maybe even have just completely lost it – the fact is this is a proper old classic and I’m glad that it’s sustained its place as one of the main races of the calendar year.
From old history to new history and I do hope you will be keeping an eye on proceedings across the water as Mendelssohn attempts to make racing history on Saturday night. The Kentucky Derby is America’s biggest and most prestigious race, and Aidan O’Brien’s charge is hoping to become the first ever European trained winner. Ryan Moore has gone over to Churchill Downs for the ride, it would be incredibly special to see the drought broken.
Moore is as well known for his quiet manner and his calmness than for his impeccable ability as a jockey: surely if he can conquer the biggest race in the States we will see that raw racing passion emerge. There is a big feeling in the racing world that this race could be special, yet the American runners look very, very strong this year and it will be a fascinating race.
The two recent talking points from the last week came from Wednesday, with Torcedor winning the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot. 'The talk' has been about him being an Ascot Gold Cup contender, but personally, I think in an antepost betting landscape, 3-1 for favourite Order Of St George is a total steal! Invincible Army got home well in the Group Three Pavillion Stakes, which was a good performance and certainly a Royal Ascot contender.
Onto Saturday’s key ITV races which features from Newmarket and Goodwood.
1:50 Newmarket (Spring Lodge) – Sharja Bridge
Often in these big handicaps at the early point of the season, there is one who is just going to go on to better things during the course of the year and no more so than Sharja Bridge. He’s only raced four times, winning once in good style at Nottingham before then being narrowly denied at Sandown. He is the type of horse to improve as he gets older, and I imagine he will have a very good season after what looks an ideal starting point.
Another Eclipse is another who should prove much better than his current mark. I imagine the gelding operation will help him, and he looks like great value.
2:05 Goodwood (Daisy Warwick) – Mori
Mori is the daughter of Group One winners Frankel and Midday, so you’d expect her to be pretty good. Her form tailed off at the end of the season, and she needs to bounce back into winning form here; but her narrow defeat in the Ribblesdale at Ascot is strong form and she’s a course winner. The main concern is whether she can reproduce her best form, if she does then she may prove difficult to beat here.
What A Home is a big worry but my each-way bet would be Ralph Beckett’s Isabel De Urbina. She’s got some mixed form but has a bit of ability and can nick a place here.
2:20 Newmarket (Palace Hose) – Havana Grey
This looks a pretty terrible renewal of the Palace House, and Havana Grey looks to be the standout contender on form. Marsha, Profitable and Sole Power have won this over the years, but there doesn’t seem to be any performer of that calibre here. Havana Grey was a smart tough juvenile, running well in lots of top races. Karl Burke rates him very highly and with weight allowances on his side, he should run a big race here.
2:40 Goodwood – Medahim, Masham Star e\w
Medahim ran a very promising race when fifth at Newmarket and I just feel that one day it is all going to go right for him in a big Saturday handicap, that could be today. He will come on for that run, and appears very well treated in the handicap. He’s run well over the course and distance, and with another 2lb off his back I think he’ll go very close.
Masham Star is another capable of winning a valuable handicap for Mark Johnston. Quick ground would be ideal, but the shape and pace of these big races can benefit him here.
2:55 Newmarket (Jockey Club) – Defoe/Khalidi forecast
I was very pleased when Defoe won so well at Newbury last month because I’m certain he will turn into a very smart horse this year, and it’s finally coming true. He was impressive in that Group Three, and if anything this doesn’t seem too much more difficult here. He will relish the conditions and I imagine he will have way too much class here.
I’ve spoken to Andrew Balding many a time about Count Octave, he seems likely to need a longer trip so I think Khalidi could be one to pick up the second prize. He boasted some smart form as a three-year-old and could progress this year.
3:40 Newmarket (2000 Guineas)
Take a look at my extensive look at this year’s 2000 Guineas and my verdict on the first classic of the season here.
23:50 Churchill Downs, USA (Kentucky Derby)
As always Kentucky Derby day is worth watching, and although I would love to see Mendelssohn win the big race I think Audible will land the spoils. He won the Florida Derby in good style, and horses that win that race tend to do well in this. I will be cheering on Ryan Moore, but if Audible swoops past to nick it at the line, I won’t be too disappointed.
I will be back tomorrow for the second day of the Guineas Festival, I wish you the best of luck with your afternoon’s bets.
