Shrewsbury hold a one-goal advantage after Joe Nolan’s wonder strike separated the two sides at The Valley on Thursday and while play-off veteran Paul Hurst is keen to emphasise the fact it’s only half time, the result in south London was greeted by an understandable sense of vindication - closure, even - that might ensure this tie gets no better.
Salop haven’t gone short of recognition for their wonderful achievements this season but hand in hand with that is a recurring assumption that the bubble is about to burst - or indeed, more recently, already has. The Shrews continue to be written off at every turn and judging by the current mood among fans and local media, it obviously grates.
By general consensus, Thursday’s display was one of their best of the season, if not the best given what was at stake. They weathered an early storm, gained a foothold by running down the clock and then grew in stature after an hour as the hosts ran out of ideas, making Nolan’s decisive contribution feel inevitable when it eventually arrived.
But play the same 90 minutes again and, chance for chance, the scoreline might just as easily finish the other way around. So that perhaps explains why Lee Bowyer was in such defiant mood afterwards. There’s an edge to him that could drag the Londoners off the canvas and back into this with victory over 90 minutes at 12/5, then qualify at 7/2.
Speaking immediately after the final whistle on Thursday, Bowyer rallied: "I know my team is better than their team. That’s what I just said to them, ‘you are better than them, I’m telling you now, I’ll look you all in the eyes and tell you that you're a better team than them. So don’t think this tie is over because it ain’t'."
The total goals market for the first leg settled at an expectancy of around 1.88 and the return is shaping up to be more of the same, so the first goal - if there is one - is obviously going to be crucial. But should Charlton get it, the momentum swings and Shrewsbury might well need to dig even deeper than they already have.
Either way, with Salop already sitting on a lead, too much is being made of home advantage and there's mileage in this one going all the way to a penalties. Both teams are 16/1 to progress via that method and it's worth splitting a point between the two, even though the hunch is that Charlton would have extra buoyancy and maybe a minor psychological edge.
Recommended bets:
1pt Charlton to beat Shrewsbury at 12/5
1pt Charlton to qualify at 7/2
0.5pt Charlton to win on penalties at 16/1
0.5pt Shrewsbury to win on penalties at 16/1
