The Formula One season is at its halfway point and will soon embark on its summer break. This is traditionally the time of year when speculation over seats for the following year begins to intensify and that is no different this time around.
It is unlikely that any more than one seat will become available at the top three teams. Mercedes are happy with the job Valtteri Bottas has done since replacing reigning drivers’ champion Nico Rosberg and are expected to extend his contract, even if only for another year, while both of the Red Bull drivers are well-viewed by the team and tied down for 2018.
The one seat that may be up for grabs is at Ferrari, where Kimi Raikkonen is having a difficult season. Sebastian Vettel is keen to keep the Finn on board as his teammate for another year and that could even be a key point in his ongoing contract talks with the team. But if they decide differently that would open up a range of possibilities.
Force India’s Sergio Perez is an obvious candidate, and Romain Grosjean has also previously been linked, but there is also a case building for F2-series-leader Charles Leclerc, although it has been a long time since Ferrari last put a rookie into one of their cars.
Renault can be expected to play a big role in the market. Nico Hulkenberg is on a long-term contract, but it is highly likely that his teammate Jolyon Palmer will depart at the end of the year, if not before. Carlos Sainz, who appears to be getting increasingly frustrated at the lack of space to move up to Red Bull from Toro Rosso, has been heavily linked, while Perez and even Fernando Alonso are other options that could be under consideration.
There is even the possibility of a Formula One return for Robert Kubica, who left the sport after suffering serious injuries in a rally crash in 2011. He has successfully completed a couple of test days in older machinery and believes he would be capable of competing if called upon.
Alonso’s future is tied to that of the McLaren and Honda relationship. It is unlikely he will want to continue for another year if there are no signs of progress with the Honda engine in the second half of the season, and McLaren fail to strike an attractive deal with another supplier. If he leaves, it could be his compatriot Sainz who comes in to replace him.
Williams seem relatively settled but could move for Perez if a decision is made to part ways with Felipe Massa. Haas are only likely to be active if Grosjean chooses to leave, while Force India (who will carry a different name next year) would obviously have to replace Perez if he was to move on but are otherwise happy with the pairing of him and Esteban Ocon.
Toro Rosso will presumably look to bring in Red Bull junior and reigning F2 champion Pierre Gasly, either in place of Sainz or the accident-prone Daniil Kyvat if Sainz stays on. That could, though, change if murmurings of Honda interest in the team are made concrete.
Sauber are an intriguing case. It was announced that they had agreed an engine-supply deal with Honda for 2018, but that now seems to be in doubt and it is therefore entirely possible that they will run Ferrari or Mercedes engines next year. The deal would likely include a seat for a young driver of the eventual supplier: Leclerc or Antonio Giovinazzi in Ferrari’s case; current driver Pascal Wehrlein if it is Mercedes.
