England’s chosen squad haven’t even started packing yet – but already the dissenters are out in force to dismiss any hopes of the Three Lions returning home with the Ashes urn.
A patchy run of form in Tests, allied with a dismal recent away record, is just the beginning of England’s problems. Throw in inconsistent team selections, significant concerns over the top and middle order line-up and a very inexperienced looking squad and Joe Root’s headaches are piling up. Then you throw in the Ben Stokes affair.
It certainly makes for a gloomy outlook. This is the Ashes. Competing in an away series in Australia should be the pinnacle of any England cricketer’s career. Instead, those due to board the plane bound for Down Under in a couple of weeks would be forgiven for doing so with trepidation.
But why should they? Yes it’s alien conditions to some, yes the Australian pitches are problematic for even the best batsmen in the world with their pace and extra bounce, and yes the hostile crowds will prove mentally tough to overcome.
However, England aren’t facing Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Ricky Ponting in their pomp. Not even Mitchell Johnson and his wildly inconsistent yet often stunningly devastating ways is around anymore.
The truth is, Australia are on their own wretched run of form. Granted, a sequence of losses in all formats have come on their travels, but confidence levels will be low. They may be a different beast at home, but being unable to win is a difficult habit to break. Particularly when there will still be the pressure of being at home, the burden of being favourites and the need to beat England over five matches in order to regain the little urn.
There is more pressure in that regard on the hosts than the tourists. And England, with Alastair Cook and Joe Root in their ranks, will surely look to attack that from the off and give their otherwise inexperienced side a platform.
While the probable absence of Stokes is a huge blow. Australia aren’t without their key absences. This week paceman James Pattinson was ruled out of the series. The injury-prone star missed the disappointing tours of Bangladesh and India because of back problems. Now he has suffered a re-aggravation of a lower-back stress fracture and will take an indefinite break from bowling.
Pattinson was set to line-up as part of a potentially fearsome four-pronged pace attack with Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood. This alters their thinking and the balance of Australia’s bowling department. It causes a headache and a rethink for the selectors and captain Steve Smith.
As a quartet, there is no doubt they have the potential to cause destruction of England’s often fragile batting lineup. All are capable of a spell to rip through a side – particularly one as prone to a collapse as England are.
But a bowler light with Pattinson missing leaves a tactical hole for the Aussies to plug.
In Pattinson, they lose a man with excellent knowledge of England’s game. He had a spell with Nottinghamshire earlier this season, helping them claim the Royal London One-Day Cup. Moreover, he was quite brilliant in the county championship, taking 32 wickets in just five matches. His average was a stunning 12.06, albeit in the second division.
But more than simply losing a man who has showed brilliant recent form, Australia are losing their balance and upsetting their approach. It’s up to England to pray on that from the off.
It’s time for the odds to shift slightly closer towards England – they do hold the urn after all.
