The Race For The Top Four: Analysis Of The Final 11 Fixtures Suggests Chelsea Will Miss Out

The Race For The Top Four: Analysis Of The Final 11 Fixtures Suggests Chelsea Will Miss Out
18:04, 22 Feb 2018

The Premier League title might have been sewn up a long time ago, but the race for a top four finish does at least offer some intrigue at the top end of the table. Between now and May there are nine six-pointers between the “big six”, all of which will be vitally important thanks to the financial imperative of Champions League qualification. The first of these, Manchester United versus Chelsea, takes place at Old Trafford on Sunday with the hosts in an unexpectedly perilous position.

United’s shock defeat to Newcastle United a fortnight ago has plunged Jose Mourinho’s side into the race for Champions League football, narrowing the gap between 2nd and 5th to a mere four points. With 11 matches remaining we can now begin to assess each club’s fixture list as a “run-in”, looking at each one in turn to predict which three from Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, and Arsenal will be playing in Europe’s elite competition in 2018/19.

Man Utd

Mourinho teams always tend to slow down as the season draws to a close, which is particularly alarming considering their strangely directionless performances over the past month. If they continue to play like as stuttering individuals, rather than develop a rich tactical understanding of one another, then United good drop out of the top four come May.

However, it is hard to envisage Mourinho’s side remaining this fractured for three months. What’s more, six of their final 11 games are at home (where they’ve dropped just seven points all season) while away games against Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, and West Ham – all of which are safely in mid-table – are very winnable.

United’s fate will most likely be defined by these games, rather than tricky ties at Old Trafford against Chelsea, Liverpool, and Arsenal. Their match against Manchester City at the Etihad on April 7, a fixture that looked like a potential title decider when the fixture list was first announced, will probably be meaningless. United are extremely likely to remain in the top four.

Liverpool

Liverpool have responded emphatically to their 3-2 defeat to Southampton in the FA Cup, and with Virgil van Dijk in the side are beginning to look a lot more sturdy defensively, keeping clean sheets in three of their last four matches. Jurgen Klopp’s side won eight of their final 12 league matches last season; a similar vein of form would probably be enough to secure a top four finish in 2017/18, although this year they have to contend with tiring Champions League knock-out matches.

Fortunately for Klopp, Liverpool have perhaps the easiest run-in of all. The only notable games are trips to Old Trafford on March 10 and Stamford Bridge on May 5, the penultimate day of the season. However, with eight of their other nine remaining league games against clubs currently in the bottom half of the table, it is safe to assume Liverpool will already have qualified for the Champions League by the time they go to Chelsea.

Liverpool are frequently accused of struggling to break down defensive outfits, but in fact Klopp’s side have dropped points just twice against bottom-half clubs since the beginning of October (drawing against West Brom and losing at Swansea). They should join the Manchester clubs in next year’s Champions League.

Chelsea

 Antonio Conte’s constant feuding with the Chelsea hierarchy has clearly destabilised their season, and things could be about to get a whole lot worse. Overly-cautious tactics, failure to rotate his squad, and murmurs of discontent in the dressing room combine to put Chelsea in a very vulnerable position.

Their fixture list could hardly be any worse. The Blues travel to Man Utd and Manchester City in back-to-back games starting on Sunday, and are yet to play away to Burnley, Leicester City, Swansea City, or Newcastle United – all of which are notoriously thorny places to visit. In light of Chelsea’s recent 4-1 loss at Watford, they might drop out of the top four on away form alone, before you even consider they also face Spurs and Liverpool at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea look the most likely of the current top five to miss out on Champions League football.

Tottenham

Spurs’ biggest obstacle is their brilliant form in Europe, which could conceivably take them all the way to the final in Kiev. However Tottenham won 12 of their final 13 league games last season and with the addition of Lucas Moura have a deep enough squad to compete on multiple fronts.

Their next four league matches are easily winnable (Bournemouth away being the biggest challenge) before a pivotal game at Stamford Bridge in April. This game might essentially be the decider between Chelsea and Spurs for fourth, although even if Tottenham lose they only face one more difficult match in 2017/18, a home game against Manchester City.

Things do appear to be coming together at just the right time for Mauricio Pochettino, whose players are firing on all cylinders. Home games against Huddersfield, Newcastle, Watford, and Leicester should be simple enough, while their final three away matches read: Stoke, Brighton, West Brom. As Chelsea stumble, Spurs should get over the line.

Arsenal

Already eight points adrift of fourth and expected to play plenty more gruelling Thursday night Europa League matches, Arsenal stand almost no chance of pipping two of their rivals to the final Champions League spot. At the current points-per-game rate the club that finishes fourth will have 76 points, which means the Gunners need 31 points from their final 11 games – that’s 10 wins and one draw.

Arsenal actually have a very straight-forward run-in and traditionally end campaigns strongly, but surely the size of the task is beyond Arsene Wenger. The Europa League will take its toll (and take priority given it offers a more realistic route to the Champions League) while the Gunners can’t even reach that 76-point mark should they lose at the Etihad next Thursday.

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