The Stage - A sprint battle before Milano-San Remo.
The Route - Is almost entirely flat apart from the opening climb over Montemagio, which is nearly 4.8 kilomerres long and averages 3.5% and heads south down the coast to the City of Livorno before taking a left turn to head down towards Donoratico, presumably taking in the scenery rather than any actual terrain as the riders hopefully get a chance to ease themselves in following a hard day yesterday.
The Circuit - Is also straightforward, and a likely to make this a battle of for the sprint trains around Follonica. It’s 8.3km, pan flat and has one tight spot close to 2.8kms out where u-turn and then head along the promenade towards the finish line, which is arrow straight through the last kilometre.
The Weather - Is the tricky part of the day. These are exposed roads that are as close to the coast as one could hope for and the pressure point is Cecina, with 90kms to go. There is a constant crosswind coming from the sea – this is the danger zone for the teams.
The Contenders - This obviously goes to a sprinter of some sort but the field is stacked with them. The favourite is Fernando Gaviria (Quick-Step) who took four stages in the Giro D’Italia last year as well as a fine eight in the World Championships.
He took the opening three stages of the Colombia Oro y Paz and hasn’t had many stages that suit him in Europe – with his pilot Maxmilliano Richeze at the helm he’ll fancy his chances.
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This season has been a struggle for Marcel Kittel (Katusha-Alpecin) so far; He has struggled to link with his new team and hasn’t contested many finishes, something which is worrying in itself, although the one positive sign he has shown – a brilliant turn of speed to go from 9th to 2nd on Stage 3 of the Abu Dhabi Tour – was so taking you feel it’s a matter of time before he manages to get involved again although his train hasn’t worked so far.
Caleb Ewan (Mitchelton-Scott) had a frustrating week in Abu Dhabi, when he was third and fifth twice in the three sprint stages, but he has a big chance of taking the lead through bonuses here and it’s an important day for him. He had been hugely impressive through 2017 and the Tour Down Under beforehand.
Peter Sagan (Bora) made a decent enough comeback at Strade Bianche after altitude training and before that he had been active as usual in the Tour Down Under. This finish isn’t quite to his liking, but he carries more speed than many give him credit for.
Danny Van Poppel (Lotto-Jumbo) was second in the second stage of Abu Dhabi to Viviani but eighth and ninth in the other two stages so doesn’t start this as one of the immediate favourites here although he’s likely to be challenging for top 5 at the very least. Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain-Merida) has been more impressive, finishing eighth at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and third at Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne, and a repeat of those efforts would give him serious chances here.
