By 10pm next Thursday, regardless of the result and performance against Costa Rica at Elland Road, Leeds we will have a much clearer picture of Gareth Southgate’s intentions as he takes his squad of 23 into an otherwise unpredictable World Cup campaign.
Against Nigeria at Wembley Stadium on Saturday it is reasonable to expect a smidgeon of experimentation as the England boss utilises – however briefly – his plan B. We can also anticipate numerous substitutions as peripheral figures are given some valuable international minutes ahead of travelling to Russia.
That though will surely not be the case next week because then, with the clock fast ticking down on England’s tournament opener it is beholden on Southgate to field his planned starting eleven, concentrating only on formational tweaks and individual instruction. He will, in effect, show his hand.
In England’s final warm-up friendlies prior to their 2006 and 2014 World Cup jaunts only one player apiece was different to the line-up that kicked off their campaigns in Germany and Brazil respectively. It is difficult to imagine Southgate taking a dramatically different tack on this occasion while looking back to these preparations is pertinent as they reveal a good deal about what Southgate will be hoping to get out of the days to come.
Incidentally, Fabio Capello’s disastrous stint in 2010 has not been over-looked here but in that instance the Italian’s shambolic last-minute groundwork only offers up lessons to his successor of what he should avoid doing like the plague. But we will get to that shortly.
Twelve years ago Eriksson – still considered an esoteric, if overly-orthodox coach who could yet guide the Three Lions to a semblance of glory – went into his two warm-up friendlies with a clear mandate of what had to be addressed and crucially too a pretty fixed idea of his strongest XI. The Swede would certainly have been greatly encouraged by the aggregate score-line over Hungary and Jamaica (both played at Old Trafford) that amounted to a 9-1 stuffing but more so the two fixtures afforded him a chance to blood his 17-year-old gamble Theo Walcott against the Magyars while over the two games try out different options as back-up right-back should injury befall Gary Neville.
Indeed with hindsight the only criticism that can be levelled is a promise Eriksson made straight after the friendlies that his side would remain the same for England’s World Cup opener v Paraguay. When Jamie Carragher consequently found himself demoted from the base of midfield to the bench it set in motion a grievance that ultimately led to his premature retirement.
Fast-forward eight years and Roy Hodgson’s preparations were beset by problems but really none of which he could be blamed for. Heading as they were for the tropical climate of Brazil’s rainforest it made perfect sense to acclimatise the players beforehand with a brace of fixtures in Miami and struggling through a 2-2 draw with Ecuador in fierce heat may not have lent itself to positive headlines but certainly benefitted the players physically. Furthermore impressive displays from Ross Barkley and Daniel Sturridge gave the manager welcome food for thought and it’s to his credit that both featured in the World Cup perhaps more than he originally intended.
In what was essentially a reserve team outing (save for the inclusion of Wayne Rooney to help his match fitness) the disappointing centre-back pairing of Jones and Smalling would have confirmed in Hodgson’s mind that neither deserved a first team spot while the experiment of playing James Milner reached a nadir.
In such circumstances negatives become positives because that is precisely what these games are for – to eradicate doubt and jettison flawed ideas before results really matter.
It was in England’s second game in Miami where everything unravelled as a freak lightning storm meant play was postponed for a full forty minutes midway through the first half. Understandably perhaps once the players returned all momentum was lost in the suffocating humidity and Hodgson would have learned little as his strongest side slept-walked through to ninety minutes against Honduras.
Fabio Capello meanwhile could not blame the weather for his lousy pre-tournament ventures in 2010. Indeed he had no-one to blame but himself.
Choosing not to whittle his provisional 30-man squad down until after a match-up with Mexico at Wembley and a tepid win over Japan in Austria it resulted in friendlies that were more individual auditions than group rehearsals and ultimately the games posed more questions than provided answers. Against Japan alone 17 players featured and with the deployment of two formations it was acutely obvious that the Italian had no clear vision even at such a late, late juncture. It is particularly damning that in the final competitive contest before embarking on a World Cup two of the starters – Tom Huddlestone and Darren Bent - did not even make it onto the plane.
We should be thankful that such uncertainty now very much resides in the past and whether you agree with Gareth Southgate’s selections in the weeks to come or believe them to be well-intentioned but defective what is without question is that England has a manager who is primed for every eventuality. Against Costa Rica next Thursday he has requested that the officials are Asian because he perceives their refereeing style to be more stringent to the rules. It’s a little thing. But it matters.
It is hoped too that he follows the lead of Eriksson and Hodgson and uses the first of his two warm-up games as a trial before laying down a template in the latter fixture for how he intends to move forward. Granted those tournaments were implosions but at least the players were fully prepared, knew what was expected of them, and were good and ready. It’s not a lot to ask but right now we’ll take that.
