Who Gets Relegated? Predicting The Premier League's Battle For Survival

The Sportsman team try to work out who stays and who goes in this season's relegation battle
15:55, 18 Apr 2022

The end for the current Premier League season is drawing ever nearer, but there is still plenty to be decided before the curtains come down. 

While all the focus is on who will be crowned champions and who will take the fourth Champions League spot, the race for survival is hotting up. Trying to figure out how this will all play out, The Sportsman team have decided to give our predictions on what the bottom three will look like come 22 May and the teams we believe will be heading through the trapdoor. 

Below, we give our projections for the remaining fixtures of the season for the five current bottom teams in the division and try to map out who survives and who goes down.

Conor Keane

LEEDS UNITED (P32, Pts33)

Palace (a) Draw

Man City (h) Loss

Arsenal (a) Draw

Chelsea (h) Loss

Brighton (h) Win

Brentford (a) Draw

TOTAL: 39 points 

VERDICT: There is no denying that Jesse Marsch has helped turn things around at Elland Road since he took over from Marcelo Bielsa. His side have been more consistent in picking up points, which might have already gotten them over the line to safety.

RaphinhaLeedsUnitedjpg

EVERTON (P30, Pts28)

Leicester (h) Win

Liverpool (a) Lose

Chelsea (h) Lose

Leicester (a) Draw

Watford (a) Win

Brentford (h) Win

Palace (h) Lose

Arsenal (a) Lose

TOTAL: 38 points 

VERDICT: Everton have been poor this year but knowing what’s at stake, Goodison Park will need to become a fortress and the crowd will have to make it a hostile place for opposition teams to go to. They will also need to ensure they pick up the odd point on their travels.

BURNLEY (P31, Pts25)

Southampton (h) Draw

Wolves (a) Draw

Watford (h) Win

Villa (h) Win

Tottenham (a) Lose

Villa (a) Draw

Newcastle (h) Win

TOTAL: 37 points 

VERDICT: Their decision to sack Sean Dyche at such a crucial stage of the season will forever remain a mystery, but if they stay up the board’s decision will be slightly justified.

WATFORD (P32, Pts22) 

Man City (a) Lose

Burnley (h) Lose

Palace (a) Lose

Everton (h) Lose

Leicester (h) Draw

Chelsea (a) Lose

TOTAL: 23 points

VERDICT: They’ve shown only a few glimpses of quality all season, the two managerial appointments haven’t been inspiring and when there’s that much change in one season, it’s only going to bring trouble.

NORWICH (P32, Pts21)

Newcastle (h) Lose

Villa (a) Lose

West Ham (h) Draw

Leicester (a) Lose

Wolves (a) Lose

Tottenham (h) Lose

TOTAL: 22 points

VERDICT: Dean Smith had a difficult job when coming through the door and it was never fair on him to be expected to keep the club up. They tried adding to their squad this time around which got them some credit, but once again they haven’t been good enough. Do we crown them Championship winners for 2022-23 now?

Relegated: Burnley, Watford and Norwich

Kris Voakes

LEEDS UNITED (P32, Pts33)

Palace (a) Draw

Man City (h) Loss

Arsenal (a) Loss

Chelsea (h) Loss

Brighton (h) Win

Brentford (a) Draw

TOTAL: 38 points

VERDICT: Their run of Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea in successive matches means they have three games to target between now and the season’s end to get the majority of the points they need. They should get just enough.

EVERTON (P30, Pts28)

Leicester (h) Win

Liverpool (a) Lose

Chelsea (h) Lose

Leicester (a) Lose

Watford (a) Win

Brentford (h) Win

Palace (h) Draw

Arsenal (a) Lose

TOTAL: 38 points

VERDICT: This is going to be tight. Everton need to simultaneously maintain their Goodison Park roar but also pick up what points they can on the road. The trip to Watford and a big win against Brentford might just save them.

FrankLampardBurnleyEverton2022jpg

BURNLEY (P31, Pts25)

Southampton (h) Draw

Wolves (a) Draw

Watford (h) Win

Villa (h) Win

Tottenham (a) Lose

Villa (a) Draw

Newcastle (h) Win

TOTAL: 37 points

VERDICT: A lot, obviously, depends on who they select to replace Sean Dyche, but supposing they get a new manager bounce they will run Everton close. It could come down to them needing to win their last two games, and I’m not sure they can quite see it through.

WATFORD (P32, Pts22)

Man City (a) Lose

Burnley (h) Lose

Palace (a) Lose

Everton (h) Lose

Leicester (h) Draw

Chelsea (a) Lose

TOTAL: 23 points

VERDICT: They’re gone. I mean, how can you expect them to start picking up enough points now given their form thus far… particularly at home.

NORWICH (P32, Pts21)

Newcastle (h) Lose

Villa (a) Lose

West Ham (h) Draw

Leicester (a) Draw

Wolves (a) Lose

Tottenham (h) Lose

TOTAL: 23 points

VERDICT: Looking at the positives, they’ll come straight back up next season.

Relegated: Burnley, Watford and Norwich

Joey Mills

LEEDS UNITED (P32, Pts33)

Palace (a) Draw

Man City (h) Loss

Arsenal (a) Draw

Chelsea (h) Loss

Brighton (h) Draw

Brentford (a) Win

TOTAL: 39 points

VERDICT: City, Arsenal and Chelsea are three teams no relegation-threatened club wants to see in their run-in. Of that group, the improving but occasionally shaky Arsenal are Jesse Marsch’s best chance of a point. Taking advantage of the likes of Brentford and Brighton potentially being on the beach by that stage of the season is vital. 

EVERTON (P30, Pts28)

Leicester (h) Win

Liverpool (a) Lose

Chelsea (h) Lose

Leicester (a) Draw

Watford (a) Win

Brentford (h) Win

Palace (h) Lose

Arsenal (a) Lose

TOTAL: 38 points

VERDICT: Leicester’s malaise presents a massive opportunity for Frank Lampard’s Toffees, considering the COVID-afflicted has them facing the Foxes twice. Liverpool and Chelsea are likely to have too much, but Watford and Brentford arrive at just the right time.

BURNLEY (P31,Pts25)

Southampton (h) Draw

Wolves (a) Lose

Watford (h) Lose

Villa (h) Lose

Tottenham (a) Lose

Villa (a) Lose

Newcastle (h) Draw

TOTAL: 27 points

VERDICT: With no permanent manager in place at Turf Moor, it is hard to fully judge where Burnley will land. But a team formed so comprehensively around one man’s vision is likely to struggle initially with a new man at the helm. Burnley’s fixture list is softer than some of their rivals, but it is unlikely to be enough.

WATFORD (P32,Pts22)

Man City (a) Lose

Burnley (h) Win

Palace (a) Lose

Everton (h) Lose

Leicester (h) Lose

Chelsea (a) Lose

TOTAL: 25 points

VERDICT: Watford look tired. Their players look tired. Roy Hodgson looks tired. The Hornets have lost eight of their last 10 games, and that is the very definition of relegation form.

RoYhODGSONjpg

NORWICH (P32, Pts21)

Newcastle (h) Lose

Villa (a) Lose

West Ham (h) Lose

Leicester (a) Draw

Wolves (a) Lose

Tottenham (h) Lose

TOTAL: 22 points

VERDICT: Landing some blows on a punch-drunk Manchester United at Old Trafford might be as good as it gets for the Canaries this spring. Add another five points to this total if Delia Smith does another “Let’s be ‘avin’ you!” rant.

Relegated: Burnley, Watford and Norwich

Sam Penfold

LEEDS UNITED (P32, Pts33)

Palace (a) Loss

Man City (h) Loss

Arsenal (a) Loss

Chelsea (h) Loss

Brighton (h) Win

Brentford (a) Draw

TOTAL: 37 points

VERDICT: Leeds United’s recent upturn in form has seen them collect 10 points from their last 12 available. Those points will be vital in their survival push as the chasing pack looks to be in real trouble. Not much to smile about between now and the end of the season but staying up will be more than enough. 

EVERTON (P30, Pts28)

Leicester (h) Draw

Liverpool (a) Lose

Chelsea (h) Lose

Leicester (a) Draw

Watford (a) Win

Brentford (h) Draw

Palace (h) Draw

Arsenal (a) Lose

TOTAL: 35 points

VERDICT: Everton need points. Where will they get them though? Leicester potentially due to their Europa Conference League commitments. Watford are dreadful and there for the taking. Brentford and Palace will be tough but points are on the cards. Maybe we’re giving them too much credit. Maybe Everton will fall off again but you get the feeling they’ll hang in there.  

BURNLEY (P31, Pts25)

Southampton (h) Draw

Wolves (a) Lose

Watford (h) Win

Villa (h) Lose

Tottenham (a) Lose

Villa (a) Lose

Newcastle (h) Lose

TOTAL: 29 points

VERDICT: A new manager won't save the Clarets. A point against West Ham was good but the killer blow was the loss to Norwich, after beating Everton just days before, that sealed Burnley’s fate. 

WATFORD (P32,Pts22)

Man City (a) Lose

Burnley (h) Lose

Palace (a) Lose

Everton (h) Lose

Leicester (h) Lose

Chelsea (a) Lose

TOTAL: 22 points

VERDICT: No wins on the horizon here for the Hornets. They were buzzing to be back in the Premier League but their real nest is the Championship and off they go to from whence they came.  

NORWICH (P32, Pts21)

Newcastle (h) Lose

Villa (a) Lose

West Ham (h) Lose

Leicester (a) Lose

Wolves (a) Lose

Tottenham (h) Lose

TOTAL: 21 points

VERDICT: Yoyo club FC. See you in two years Norwich.

Relegated: Burnley, Watford and Norwich

Betfred Premier League Relegation Odds*

*18+ | BeGambleAware

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