Who Wins The League One Play-Offs? Our Expert Tipster Gives Us His Outright Betting Preview

Who Wins The League One Play-Offs? Our Expert Tipster Gives Us His Outright Betting Preview
09:46, 09 May 2018

There’s an unusual dynamic in League One where not one, but two clubs enter the play-offs without a permanent manager - and that's probably no bad thing. 

Both Charlton and Scunthorpe head into this as genuine wild cards, playing with a freedom they simply wouldn’t have been entitled to under former managers Karl Robinson and Graham Alexander. Yet, on paper, they are at least the equals of third-placed Shrewsbury and fourth-placed Rotherham. Indeed, back in August, they were both much higher in the betting.

Whether the Addicks or the Iron would have actually finished in the top six in their former state is debatable - more so in Charlton’s case - and there’s no disputing that the whole mood around both clubs has changed for the better. Lee Bowyer and Nick Daws are blessed with bright ideas and an abundance of goodwill, and both men are making positive waves.

It only helps that both are former players and formed part of the backroom staff under the previous regime. They stepped into their respective roles with an understanding of the culture and well-developed preconceptions about highest leverage points for immediate improvement. As such, the smallest of tweaks appear to have made a world of difference.

Bowyer has diverted away from the 4-2-3-1 that triggered much frustration under Robinson, toying with a variety formations - and getting results all the while - before eventually settling on a 4-4-2 that enables the Addicks to stretch the play and use the full width of pitch, rather than constantly trying to thread balls through the middle.

But make no mistake, this is mostly about buy-in. Charlton might not be the best or most cohesive of the quartet, but they carry no baggage from the regular season - there was virtually zero talk of promotion between Christmas and Easter - and there will be no checking their stride as they head into this altered dynamic.

Over the past six weeks, the Londoners have had pivotal games against Plymouth, Rotherham, Scunthorpe, Shrewsbury, Portsmouth and Blackburn. And it was only through winning five of those matches that they stand here today, ready to take on that calibre of opposition again.

Scunthorpe are the only team to have beaten Charlton in that sample when Bowyer experimented with - and then ditched - a midfield diamond. That was Daws' first triumph as successor to Alexander and his tactical masterstroke appears to be removing striker Tom Hopper in order to play winger Duane Holmes through the middle as either a 9 or a 10.

The Iron have also been totally re-energised, just as they were in Daws' previous caretaker spell and they will be dangerous opposition. But a lack of experience in key areas, at key moments, might be their undoing. It might have been dull under Alexander by comparison but, in difficult moments, they might miss some of the pragmatism he possessed.

Nonetheless, Paul Hurst and Paul Warne must be cursing. They've been the life and soul of this party for the past 10 months, only for the other two to waltz in unannounced after midnight. Suddenly, all that groundwork feels like it's going to count for nothing as the girl they've been chasing flutters her eyelashes at the late interlopers with their different banter and fresh impetus.

But that's the unforgiving nature of the play-offs. It only rewards credentials in the here and now, past performance counts for nothing. Bowyer and Daws have momentum of sorts, so Shrewsbury and Rotherham will have to dig deep and perhaps reinvent themselves somehow to counter the hidden secrets of the other two.

Without knowing what Salop and the Millers have up their sleeves, though, it's difficult to resist the temptation of siding with the sudden charm of the other two. Back Charlton to ride their wave into the Championship, at the expense of an equally free-spirited but slightly more naive Scunthorpe side at Wembley.

Recommended bets:

1pt Charlton to win promotion

1pt Charlton and Scunthorpe to qualify at 4.84 (Bet365)

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