The closer we get to the start of the 2018/19 season the more likely it becomes that Jose Mourinho won’t survive the year as manager of Manchester United. He has cut a disconsolate figure over the summer, the whinging and irritability surpassing even those levels reached during his disastrous third seasons at Chelsea (twice) and Real Madrid – and that’s before a ball has even been kicked.
Nobody has been spared, not players, the media, nor opponents. Some have even begun to suggest Mourinho is planning an exit strategy, such has been the constancy of his downbeat attitude, and while this is unlikely to be true the Portuguese’s antics have certainly been bizarre. This is no way to get the fans onboard and surely not the best way to inject self-belief into the United players; a catastrophic collapse in the Autumn of this year is a genuine possibility. Here’s why.
1) Mourinho has focused his whinging on the United players
Mourinho has belittled his own players on numerous occasions this summer, bemoaning their lack of quality and sometimes even their character during the club’s tour of the USA. This has to be damaging to squad morale, as opposed to boosting the egos of those not singled out for criticism (the supposed benefit of his psychological approach in previous jobs). That certain figures at Old Trafford became disillusioned with Mourinho’s perceived “bullying” of Luke Shaw last season is testament to this.
It is perhaps no coincidence that Paul Pogba is being linked with a move to Barcelona so soon after Mourinho questioned why the Frenchman couldn’t match his World Cup performances in a United shirt. The same question can be asked of the Anthony Martial situation, the winger expected to leave the club in the same month Mourinho criticised him for leaving the USA tour to attend the birth of his second child.
Player power has never been higher primarily because managers rarely last more than two years in a job; most players will outlive their coaches at a club, and so they are more likely to turn on the coach and force him out should relations deteriorate. It is not difficult to see why this might happen in 2018/19 if Mourinho continues to throw his players under the bus.
2) Injuries and fatigue leaves United seriously depleted
Not all Mourinho’s complaints are unwarranted. Injuries and the World Cup has left him without nine first-team players: Paul Pogba, Marouane Fellaini, Jesse Lingard, Eric Bailly, Antonio Valencia, Anthony Martial, Nemanja Matic, Romelu Lukaku, and Ashley Young. Mourinho has resorted to playing an awkward 3-5-2 formation in order to solidify a badly understocked defence, which means their tactical preparation for the new campaign has been pretty dreadful.
United already struggled for fluency in attack, often looking stodgy in possession and struggling to break down opponents on their travels. This situation will surely get worse should Mourinho be forced to play youngsters or, as in recent friendlies, start Alexis Sanchez and Juan Mata together up front. Extra pressure has been heaped on Marcus Rashford this month, with United managing just one shot on target in their most recent friendly, a 1-0 defeat to Bayern Munich.
Mourinho warned of a “difficult season” ahead after the match. It is had to disagree when the midfield for that final pre-season match was Fred, Ander Herrera, and Andreas Pereira.
3) Mourinho’s history means poor results will quickly be labelled as ‘crisis’
Psychology is an under-rated factor in top-level sport, and although Mourinho was once a master of mentality his third-season syndrome is piling on layers of doubt. Every fresh collapse has been more damaging than the last, largely because the ghost of previous issues puts uncertainty in the heads of his players.
In short, even one defeat in the first few weeks of the new season could be enough for the press to scream “crisis” and United’s opponents to step up their game. Chelsea’s run of nine defeats from their opening 16 games of the 2015/16 season was genuinely extraordinary, a sequence clearly about psychological collapse more than technical deficiency. It looked as though his players had believed in the media narrative and the spectre of the third-season-syndrome too much. Judging by their poor pre-season, United’s players look equally susceptible.
4) Lack of centre-back options could derail defence
United need reinforcements in all areas of the pitch, but so far the club has only added one first-team player in Brazilian midfielder Fred. There are plenty of names being touted with a move to Old Trafford before the window closes on Thursday, but currently it looks as though only one centre-back – Toby Alderweireld – will join the club.
They need more than one new defender. Phil Jones, Victor Lindelof, and Chris Smalling aren’t good enough for a team attempting to chase down Manchester City, while Eric Bailly has proved himself injury prone with yet another knock this week. That is a dreadful position to be in for a club of this stature, and for a manager whose tactics are defence focused.
A couple of defeats early in the season could trigger a decline in morale, which in turn will make them a vulnerable target for teams travelling to Old Trafford with bravery and attacking intent. The defence, then, might be the first thing to collapse.
5) Difficult fixtures could make November’s Manchester derby the breaking point
On initial viewing Man Utd’s fixture list doesn’t look too daunting, but there are a few banana skin games in the first couple of months that could be enough to throw the title away before they meet arch rivals Manchester City at the Etihad on November 11.
Leicester City will be fierce opposition on Friday, playing a quick counter-attacking system that could get at least a point at Old Trafford. United then face Tottenham Hotspur at home and Burnley away in their next three league games, and in the seven matches before the Manchester derby travel to Chelsea and host Everton. 11 matches in, United could have dropped points in at least four of these, making defeat to Pep Guardiola’s side fatal.
This could be the point of collapse, then, although the United board are unlikely to sack the manager unless a top four finish is under threat. Mourinho might hold on for a while, but there are numerous signs suggesting this could be a hugely disappointing campaign for Manchester United.
