Why Watford’s Psychological Advantage Makes Them Favourites To Beat Chelsea

Why Watford’s Psychological Advantage Makes Them Favourites To Beat Chelsea
11:35, 20 Oct 2017

It’s been 18 years and 13 matches since Watford last beat their London rivals Chelsea and yet Hornets fans travelling to Stamford Bridge this Saturday lunchtime have every right to feel they will emerge victorious. In fact, as strange as it might sound, Watford - excelling under the guidance of astute tactician Marco Silva - should be considered favourites to get all three points.

The psychological state of a Premier League squad is often as important as their tactical setup, and right now Watford have a clear advantage in the former. Successive league defeats for Chelsea, coupled with increasingly irritable press conferences from manager Antonio Conte, hint at a mini-crisis developing in west London, while Watford’s 2-1 victory over Arsenal leaves them feeling buoyant in fourth place. They enter the match undefeated on the road this season, having collected 10 points from a possible 12, and will be ready to pounce on any timidity from the hosts.

But it isn’t just the form guide that gives Watford fans hope for another upset. A psychological advantage often triggers tactical superiority, which is particularly true in the case of Silva’s team, who play with a boldly aggressive strategy that should seriously test Chelsea’s resolve on Saturday. It is their bite in the tackle and fierce refusal to lie down that makes this a must-watch game – and makes Watford favourites.

Tom Cleverley’s stoppage-time winner against Arsenal last weekend typified this approach. Watford won the “second ball” on three separate occasions in the build-up to the goal, and although Chelsea are considerably more hard-working and tactically together than the Gunners they will likewise lose many of these scrappy battles in the middle. The high-tempo heel-snapping of Abdoulaye Doucoure and Cleverley should get the better of a midfield without N’Golo Kante or Danny Drinkwater, particularly when Chelsea are lacking confidence; sharpness in winning the second balls is the first thing that suffers when results are poor, largely because low morale breeds nervousness and hesitant decision making. That Cesc Fabgreas will be roaming the middle of the park only makes things worse.

Not that aggression in midfield is Watford’s only advantage. Silva deserves more credit than he gets for his complex - and unusual - pressing system, which aims at cutting off passing lines rather than marking specific players. Similar to Diego Simeone at Atletico Madrid, Watford hunt the ball down in one big pack, marking all of the spaces between players in a zig-zag formation rather than maintaining deeper straight-lines (like Jose Mourinho) or charge directly at the player in possession (like Jurgen Klopp or Pep Guardiola). It is a forward-thinking, attack-minded approach that should successfully prevent Chelsea’s nervy defenders from confidently passing out from the back.

There are plenty of other signs Watford are about to cause an upset. Davide Zappacosta is unfamiliar with the Premier League but must deputise for the injured Victor Moses at right wing-back (handing Richarlison the advantage), Alvaro Morata is unlikely to be in good form having only recently returned from injury, and the hosts will be tired following their exhausting midweek draw with AS Roma.

Both psychologically and tactically Watford have the advantage over Chelsea; Silva’s brilliant start is about to get even better.

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