The third Episode of Betfred’s’ Road To Cheltenham series saw racing broadcaster Martin Dixon join Joel Ross and Sean Molyneux to review the best of the action this weekend and look at some of the big market movers ahead of the Cheltenham Festival which is now just FOUR WEEKS AWAY!
Bravemansgame 9/4 from 7/2 for the Brown Advisory – a sizeable move after that scintillating performance in the Limited Handicap Chase over at Newbury. He demolished some very progressive rivals in Pats’ Fancy and Grumpy Charley and the slickness of his jumping looks ready made for the stiff fences at Prestbury Park.
Martin Dixon was extremely complementary about Bravemansgame’s performance. He remarked on his jumping which he referred to as ‘exceptional for a novice chaser’. He highlights the improvement that the Paul Nicholls’ horse has shown over fences compared to any hurdles form and the soaring ratings are telling us that as well. Joel Ross agrees with all the points made by Martin and expresses that this performance can be upgraded especially given the poor form Paul Nicholls is in.
Funambule Sivola 14/1 from 33/1 for the Champion Chase – having won well in the Game Spirit Chase, he represents an outside proposition for the red-hot Venetia Williams team.
Joel Ross speaks about the strength of the jockey, Charlie Deutsch, who can seemingly do no wrong and you’ll be hard pressed to find someone who is riding better over fences at the moment. He does however believe that given the significant cut to 14/1, the price is a little short and he wouldn’t be playing, given the strength of the market already with the likes of Shishkin and Energumene, who look incredibly difficult to beat. Martin goes on to remind everyone how easily Shishkin beat the Venetia Williams horse at Aintree in the Maghull Novices’ Chase last year. He also casts doubt on the suitability of the track, claiming that he ’would not be of any interest to him’. He underperformed on the last time he met the Cleeve Hill, finishing a remote 9th in an average renewal of the New Year’s Day Handicap Chase and reaffirms the point that he performs far better on the flatter track as proven in recent results at Newbury and Doncaster.
Eldorado Allen was impressive in the Denman Chase and was a well-deserved winner beating Royale Pagaille and Clan Des Obeaux. The Colin Tizzard trained horse looks to go one better in the Arkle this time round after finishing 2nd to Shishkin last year. Martin talks about the horse being in ‘the form of his life’ and believes he has an outside chance of causing another upset in a big race. Joel boasts about how he has already been added to his portfolio weeks ago at 40/1 for the Arkle. Despite this, he puts forward a good case for why the horse could be supplemented for the Gold Cup, which looks a wide-open contest especially compared to the Arkle.
Both men are encouraged by the performance of Royale Pagaille in the contest, who is a 20/1 shot for the Gold Cup. He will undoubtedly prove much better on softer ground and in a bigger field, where there will be a strong gallop to aim at. Martin has a concern as to whether the horse does actually handle Cheltenham, having travelled with no real fluency in last year’s renewal and wouldn’t be overly confident on his chances.
The lads then look back at the big betting heat at Newbury which was the Betfair Hurdle won by the outsider, Glory and Fortune, who returned at 20/1. Joel was heartbroken by his selection, I Like To Move It, who was narrowly outstayed by the Tom Lacey horse and this will leave its mark on Joel for weeks to come. Martin is surprised that the market hasn’t adjusted for the Nigel Twiston-Davies horse in the Supreme, who remains a 40/1 chance. He thinks that his form has been massively boosted with the result, having been relatively unconvinced of the 5yo form beforehand. He states that showing this in a big competitive field at Newbury, potentially puts him into the frame for an each-way play for the curtain raiser at Cheltenham.
Edwardstone 15/8 from 3/1 for the Arkle – Having won the famous Arkle trial in the Kingmaker this weekend, beating fellow market priniciple, Third Time Lucki, by 4 ¼ l, he now looks one of the best English chances for the festival.
Martin and Joel were both taken by the performance from Alan King’s 8yo. He’s slightly older than usual novice chasers but Martin thinks that this might in fact be helping him out, as he talks about the horse as a ‘true professional’ who ‘does everything right’. He’s a versatile sort on any type of ground and is a powerful stayer, who will take the world of beating in a month’s time. Joel was also incredibly bullish about Edwardstone’s chances for the race at the weekend and for the Arkle calling the horse all ‘class’ and a ‘true champion’ and is now sitting pretty on an 8/1 ticket ahead of the showdown in a month’s time.
Ciel De Niege was an impressive for Willie Mullins in Ireland who has seen his price halved for the Arkle and is now a 16/1 shot from 33s. Martin explains how much better the horse is over fences than he was over hurdles but does have a concern that he may not handle Cheltenham, having finished down in the field in the County Hurdle. He also goes on to say that the Arkle is notorious for cutting up, and unlike many, he looks like he’ll end up in the race. From an ante post perspective, he believes that the 16/1 currently being offered could be ‘one of the more appealing prices’ at this stage.
The lads then cast their eye over to the rest of the weekend’s action and home in on Henry De Bromhead’s 6yo, Journey With Me, who further consolidated his claims for the Ballymore. The current 9/2 price being offered ‘doesn’t offer a massive amount of value’ according to Martin Dixon, with the horse not having the star quality that many others in amongst the top of the market have. Joel agrees and remarks on the novice nature of his jumping at times which might prevent him from reaching that top level, as well as highlighting yet another great ante post position he has with Walking On Air. The Nicky Henderson 5yo absolutely hacked up at Newbury, winning by 13l and the ceiling of that horse remains to be seen – lucky Joel!
Brazil 6/1 from 16/1 for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – who bolted up by 13l for the Padraig Roche team on Saturday. He’s bred to win a Derby, out of Galileo, but now represents a fascinating jumping prospect should he turn up in the contest.
Martin talks about how the horse has an ‘ideal profile’ for the race, who stays well, and this prove pivotal in a contest like this. He thinks the experience he possesses could be vital and he will be up there with the market principles for the race should he turn up.
Every week, the team have a race in focus and this week is – the Ryanair Chase.
The lads are confident that the market leader, Allaho, will go here unlike many of the others in the market. Martin revels on just how good the performance was from the 8yo last year. He dominated the contest from start to finish and won by an eventual 12l. Martin couldn’t be stronger on the Willie Mullins’ horse stating that if he replicates the same form, he will win again as no other horse ‘can live with him’. He follows that up with his main danger to the 8yo which he believes is Paul Nicholls’ Saint Calvados, who offers a nice each-way poke. He ran an eye-catching performance at the King George on Boxing Day, and he is one of only a few that you can be confident will turn up here barring any injuries.
As with every week, we have a segment on our charity bets, where Betfred have kindly offered to place £100 for Betfred’s Matt Hulmes and Joel Ross every week on an ante post selection for the Cheltenham Festival, as we try to raise some much-needed funds for Jack Berry House.
The selections are explained on our podcast so go and watch that to hear their reasoning behind the selections, but their picks are as follows:
Matt Hulmes – Martello Sky (Mares’ Hurdle) @ 12/1
Joel Ross - £50 EW Melon (Ryanair Chase) @ 25/1
The show for this week then wraps up with Martin Dixon’s Festival handicap tip. Followers of the show will know that Martin has history of shrewd selections, highlighted by his shout at the start of the season with Saint Palais, who has been superb for the Richard J Bandey yard. He adds to that selection here with Torn and Frayed for the Paddy Power Plate (currently 9/1 5 places with Betfred). A winner of Trials’ Day, he has been put up 8lb for that display, but Martin was really impressed and felt that this rise is more than fair, with the Cheltenham hill clearly the catalyst to seeing him to his best effect. Joel Ross also weighs in on the conversation and unloads his selection which is Drop The Anchor, for the famous JP McManus team. He mentions that it is unclear where the target will be for this horse, but wherever the Pat Fahy runner goes, he will be carrying the weight of his money come festival time.
Don’t forget to watch the show on Betfred’s YouTube channel EVERY Monday from 5pm as the panel build up to the 2022 Cheltenham Festival.
