Final preparations are well underway with trainers now readying up their crew to take on the Cleeve Hill in just over four weeks’ time. This weekend, we have the last of the big pointers ahead of the Cheltenham Festival with the Kingmaker Novices’ Steeple Chase being a particular highlight as Edwardstone and Third Time Lucki lock horns. The winner of the contest will undoubtedly be looking to Prestbury Park with the Arkle in their sights.
NEWBURY
13:15 – PATS’ FANCY
We only have six runners going to post which kills any each-way angle to the race. The odds-on favourite, Bravesmangame, has been well supported in the market already but given the way Nicholls horses are running currently, I’m not sure I could even put stolen money on that horse to win at the price. An interesting horse for me in this race is Rebecca Curtis’ Pats Fancy. This horse is 2-3 this year and the Chepstow win back in December is working out brilliantly with the 2nd, Imperial Alcazar bolting up next time out at Cheltenham so the 8lb rise looks reasonable. This 7yo is on the up and seems relatively versatile ground-wise, so the conditions should be no problem and the current price of 5/1 offers some value.
13:50 – THE BIG BREAKAWAY
The Brimming Water at the top of the market carries strong claims with several form lines suggesting that he could definitely be better than this mark of 127. However, I’m not in love with the price and I believe there might be value elsewhere. The one I’m going to side here with will be met with a few groans but the return to hurdles for The Big Breakaway looks fascinating. It is easy to forget that this horse was a good 2nd in the Kauto Star on Boxing Day in 2020 and his 4th in the Ballymore puts him right into contention off this mark. His jumping over fences has been letting him down in recent starts, so the return to the smaller obstacles looks a prudent play and I’m surprised to see him at an each-way price given the form of some of the others in the contest.
14:25 – ELDORADO ALLEN
A relatively weak renewal shapes up here for the second of the three Grade 2s being shown on ITV4. The 2019 winner, Clan Des Obeaux, turns up after a relatively underwhelming performance in the King George where he finished a remote second to Tornado Flyer. Paul Nicholls’ horses are in alarmingly bad form and I’m not sure you could back any of them with any real confidence. The conditions look dry for the next couple of days which is unwelcome news for Royale Pagaille, who would undoubtedly want a little bit more cut in the ground to show his best. Given the question marks around many in the contest, it may be worth chancing your arm at Tizzard’s Eldorado Allen - a Grade 2 winner who has been very consistent so far this season, finishing 1st, 3rd, and 2nd. There is a question mark about whether he will stay the trip given this is his first run over 2m4f, but his pedigree would suggest that he should relish it. Strong staying finishes over the shorter trips suggest that at 8/1, he might have a small squeak of pulling off an upset.
15:00 – FUNAMBULE SIVOLA
Sceau Royal comes back for another try at the Game Spirit, a race in which he won 12 months ago, beating the likes of Champ and Greaneteen. Only a four-strong field turn up for the 2022 renewal with owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede confident of another success for the 10yo. It is a shame for Gary Moore that the exciting Editeur Du Gite has had to be withdrawn after a bad blood test. However, even if he lined up, he might not have beaten my selection, Funambule Sivola, who runs for the red-hot Venetia Williams team who are coming into form at the perfect time. He put in an imperious performance off top weight last time in what looks a fierce handicap when winning well from Sam Thomas’ Before Midnight. This will be a step-up for Funambule Sivola but he’s on the improve unlike many, having risen 22lb in official ratings in the last 12 months, and I expect the 7yo to serve it up to the older horses and take the crown once worn by the mighty Altior, back to Herefordshire.
15:35 – JPR ONE & JETOILE
Last year’s winner Soaring Glory returns for a second bite of the cherry but now comes into the contest off top weight which will make things far more difficult. One I think has a huge chance in here is Jetoile, who chased home the current Supreme Novices’ Hurdle favourite, Constitution Hill last time in the Tolworth. That form is strong and the form on his hurdles debut also holds weight with the 1st and 2nd franking the form since. He has scope in this off a reasonable mark to contend. I feel that the fact he’s trained by the relatively unknown Ryan Potter is the sole reason that he’s a 9/1 shot. The other I like in this is yet another Colin Tizzard horse, which is JPR One. The price has tightened a lot over the past day, but it is difficult to find a better form line than his debut run where he beat Luttrell Lad and I Am Maximus, both rated 135 and 134 respectively. The form there would suggest that he’s snuck in here off 130 given he beat them off level weights. He’s a strong stayer having won over further and the strong pace that is always set in a Betfair Hurdle should play to his stamina strengths, so it's tough not to see him go very close.
WARWICK
13:35 – MARIE’S ROCK
If you are a believer in the ratings system, then this should be a penalty kick for Paul Webber’s Indefatigable. The former Cheltenham Festival winner is rated far superior to her rivals and at odds-on I suspect she might be part of quite a few multiples come Saturday afternoon. Any horse at odds-on usually fails to interest me from a punting perspective and I look elsewhere once again here with Marie’s Rock. She had a luckless run last time in the Lanzarote Hurdle over at Kempton, where everything that could have gone wrong did. She was very well supported that day and a lot was expected only for the 7yo, only for her to be badly hampered on several occasions, so perhaps a line can be drawn through that run. She looked back to her best on the previous start before the Lanzarote, absolutely dotting up in a 2m5f handicap hurdle winning by 7 lengths. She hasn’t quite lived up to her potential as a juvenile but at only the tender age of seven, she still has plenty of time to fulfil the lofty heights that preceded her.
14:05 - EDWARDSTONE
What a contest we have in store here as two market principals of the Arkle do battle in the Kingmaker. Dan Skelton knows how to win the race having won it with Allmankind last year but his horse, Third Time Lucki has 16 lengths to turnaround with the favourite Edwardstone, who jumped him into submission in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown two months ago. Despite Third Time Lucki going off favourite, Skelton can have no complaints with the drubbing, and it is tough to see how he can turn the tables with the Alan King horse. Third Time Lucki is likely to ride less handy than he did in that race, which was the tactic put to great effect in his Doncaster romp. However, the strong pace that Edwardstone will get with freewheeling front-runner For Pleasure lining up makes it difficult to see how he can beat him.
15:15 - JACAMAR
A competitive chasing handicap is in store for the final Warwick race shown on ITV. Jacamar lines up here and he is a horse I have a big love affair with given I won my biggest bet on him a few years ago when he powered home in a handicap hurdle at Aintree. This may be clouding my judgement, but I think he’s got another chance to pay for the evening drinks here once again. On form alone, the 5th of 10 at Cheltenham looks disappointing, but he made eye-catching headway round the final turn and was bang there two out, only to chuck in a few bad jumps to fade late. An improvement in his jumping is needed as he failed to jump with any real fluency, but a return to a flatter track will suit and Milton Harris' horses arrive here in good form, so his current price of 10/1 offers great each-way value.
