England can win the World Cup. Boldly stating those six words has always been an important part of the pre-tournament ritual; it's the ceremonial duty that every British newspaper must perform to confirm to the public, if nothing else, that they're not alone in feeling an utterly irrational sense of optimism about England's chances. But with exactly one week to go before Russia 2018 gets underway, things feel curiously different this time around. Never before has England's quality been so downplayed… which is exactly why they stand a decent chance of going the distance.
The probability of Harry Kane lifting the World Cup is just 4%, according to the mathematics of data company Gracenote, and while this does feel a tad harsh it's fair to say England's reputation is suffering. The team arrive in Russia having won one of their last seven tournament matches, their story of the last four years defined by a catastrophic defeat to Iceland and the Sam Allardyce debacle. Gary Lineker is just one of many to argue England should use Russia as a practice run, a freebie for the younger players to get to know each other. A blood-thirsty tabloid press demanding the lads bring football home is notable by its absence.
Counter-intuitively, this is precisely why England's chances this summer are higher than at any point in the last 30 years. Don't laugh: England have a genuine chance of winning the World Cup. They are the tournament dark horses and stronger even than the 'Golden Generation' of 2006. Here's why:
1) Lowered expectations have lifted the pressure
England always choke. As legs and minds seize up the football becomes horribly dull, a bland staccato that betrays the paralysing fear gripping each and every player. It is, of course, no coincidence that this tournament illness has increased in line with the rabid fury of the British press; unrealistic expectations and unnecessary pressure has suffocated England over and over again.
It is too early to assert with confidence but so far it looks as though tensions have eased dramatically, allowing England to play to their strengths rather than egotistically chase total domination. Southgate is the first England manager in history allowed to play defence-first football in friendly matches without being hounded by the press for being negative. Humility is no longer a vice.
This is a symptom of our collectively lowered expectations, and it can only help the nation progress through the latter rounds. The media's general apathy also appears to have helped create a more convivial atmosphere in the camp. The days of house arrest under Fabio Capello, or club rivalries splitting the group, have long gone - according to a series of interviews with the players over the last week.
2) With two distinct battle-plans, this is the most tactically coherent England in living memory
A tension-free environment is a crucial first step, but it only lays a foundation. Crucially, Southgate has used this more sympathetic position to build a tactical system that plays to the country's strengths and places England in a realistic position as outsiders. By working on a dominant possession style for the early group games and, more importantly, a resilient counter-attacking approach for the latter stages, Southgate's England have more tactical clarity than ever before.
Dan Ashworth's 'England DNA' project was the first of its kind, and it has certainly helped Southgate's side play in a fairly dull, cautious manner without a backlash on the back pages. It is easy to sneer at the idea of an artificially manufactured DNA, but simply by labelling it a 'project' England bought themselves time, deflecting criticism by speaking about a process. The press no longer demand instant gratification.
England's impressive run of clean sheets against Germany, Brazil, and Holland vindicated Southgate's conservatism while highlighting how – with an identifiable strategy for the World Cup – England can defy expectations in Russia.
It's a lot more than could be said in the run-up to 2006, when Sven-Goran Eriksson's side looked clueless in an ill-fitting 4-4-2. Since the system is considerably more important than the individuals, it is no exaggeration to say England's chances are better than they were for the 'Golden Generation'.
3) England's younger players excel in un-English ways: intelligence, movement, and selflessness
A major reason for the dampened hopes in England is a perceived lack of quality in the squad – which is simply not true. There may not be any bona fide superstars in the squad (except for Harry Kane) but it is precisely this absence of ego that makes the collective so strong. Dele Alli, Raheem Sterling, and Jesse Lingard are all exceptionally gifted footballers whose main strengths – namely intelligence, positional play, and first touch – would be celebrated far more readily were they not English.
The Three Lions have never stood a chance of winning the World Cup when attempting to dominate matches and play superior opposition at their own game. It entirely suits England, then, to build around young energetic playmakers who (playing without fear) can weave forward on the counter-attack against the likes of Germany and Spain.
4) A favourable draw gives England a clear run to the quarter-finals
England could not have asked for a better draw, or a better order for their group stage fixtures. They should be able to beat Tunisia and Panama in the first two matches (four points might even be enough) before losing the final match to Belgium and going through in second – which actually puts England in the favourable half of the draw.
Poland, Senegal, or Colombia follows in the second round before a probable matchup with Germany in the quarter-finals. England have played Germany three times in the last two years, winning 3-2, drawing 0-0, and losing 1-0; history suggests this is by no means a guaranteed exit.
Crucially, the route to a semi-final clash with Spain outlined above involves a defeat in the group stages. Eventual World Cup winners rarely start the tournament well, which can result in peaking too early, but instead gradually build towards a grandstand finish. England are deservedly eighth favourites to lift the trophy, but for dark horses there is a pretty clear path to the semis…
5) The Tottenham connection gives England an edge over their rivals
The last two World Cup winners, Germany and Spain, had a core of their first 11 playing for the same club side, which helped Vicente del Bosque and Joachim Low play football that reflected the tactics of Barcelona and Bayern Munich respectively. It is no coincidence that Pep Guardiola managed these two clubs in 2010 and 2014, and although only three Manchester City players will play regularly for England in Russia the Catalan's influence has certainly been felt in England.
Four Tottenham Hotspur players – Kane, Dele Alli, Kieran Trippier, and Eric Dier – will start the first game, and along with ex-Spurs man Kyle Walker this makes for a very strong club connection. Mauricio Pochettino's tactics have develop alongside Guardiola's over the last two years; the seven City and Spurs men together give England the sort of advantage that helped Germany and Spain to their successes.
6) Defending seems to be a dying art - and England's back three are among the best
Southgate's 3-5-2 formation is a rarity in international football, which could prove to be a major advantage. With so little time to tactically prepare for the next opposition in international football, any curveball or oddity is helpful. What's more, Southgate seems to have found a solid partnership across the back in the 2-1 victory over Nigeria; Kyle Walker's pace, John Stones' technical ability, and Gary Cahill's experience offers good balance.
As previously mentioned England's back three have consistently kept clean sheets against the highest ranking nations, which is particularly interesting in light of the dreadful defending seen throughout the 2017/18 season. Typically World Cup winning nations are based on a solid defence and scrappy 1-0 wins in the knockout stages, yet judging by the leaky back lines of Europe's finest clubs many of the favourites will struggle in this regard. England won't.
