It may have taken some time for Belgium to make the breakthrough against Panama, but once Dries Mertens volleyed the Red Devils ahead after the break, it was plain sailing for Roberto Martinez’s side. Romelu Lukaku added a brace to secure a routine 3-0 win over Panama and sets them up nicely for Saturday’s meeting with Tunisia.
Level on points with England at the top of Group G, Belgium will look to really lay down a marker at the weekend and get on the front foot early on to put Tunisia to the sword. They showed against England how defensively vulnerable they are and with the likes of Mertens, Lukaku, Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne now beginning to shake themselves into gear, Martinez’s side be will keen to put on a show to the travelling support ahead of the Group G showdown with the Three Lions next week.
As per WhoScored.com, Tunisia saw just 40% of the ball against England and Belgium can be expected to dominate possession on Saturday, in which case it may be beneficial to see a change in personnel in the middle of the park. While it’s vital to keep with a winning formula, and on any other occasion, another manager would resist the temptation to tinker with his best system, Belgium may thrive against Tunisia in the middle of the park if Mousa Dembele replaces Axel Witsel in midfield.
Witsel did little wrong in the 3-0 win over Panama. A 94.7% pass success rate was the third best of all starters in the Group G opener as he kept things ticking over in the middle of the park. Additionally, no Belgium player made more tackles than the 29-year-old (2), yet against a Tunisia side that will aim to sit back and soak up pressure, gaining an advantage early on will go some way to ensuring a smooth performance from the Red Devils rather than battling to earn the three points late on as England did on Monday night.
It may prove to be that an additional defensive minded player is fairly pointless in this instance and relegating Witsel to the bench would greatly help Belgium in their quest to quickly gain the upper hand. With Dembele charging forward with possession, the team as a whole would be able to step up and apply ample pressure to the Tunisia backline and with Mertens and Hazard drifting in and around the penalty area, the chances of Belgium scoring early on increase significantly. That would force Tunisia to come out of their shell and require them to open up, which Belgium could ruthlessly expose, rather than sit deep and remain compact to frustrate Martinez’s side.
Dembele proved time and time again for Tottenham last season how capable a performer he is when he carries the ball up field, even with space at a premium or with plenty of grass to run into. While his final attacking output may leave little to the imagination, he at least can help punch holes in opposition defences and this knack for bringing the ball forward with ease would mean less pressure on De Bruyne to drop deeper for possession. Operating in a more advanced role, and closer to the front three, De Bruyne would then be able to maximise the clever off the ball movement of Mertens, Hazard and Lukaku to thread defence-splitting passes, and that could allow Belgium to wrack up the goal count quickly.
On numerous occasions against Panama, we saw De Bruyne drop deep to collect the ball from Witsel and it meant there was a huge gap between the midfield and attack. With Panama looking to put men behind the ball, De Bruyne routinely looked to force the issue, which meant his pass success rate was a lowly 78.1%. You’d expect better from a player of his calibre, but much of this was due to him coming short for the ball and the options either marked out of the game or resulted in the Manchester City star attempting impossible passes for teammates.
Granted, he created more goalscoring chances (4) than any other Belgium player, but two of these were from set-pieces. With Dembele in the middle of the park alongside him, and the Spurs man charging forward, it’s likely the number of key passes from open play De Bruyne makes would increase. Martinez may elect to play the safe option, which would see Witsel feature from the off, but this may promote a negative approach from Belgium and Tunisia could ultimately exploit that in the hopes of springing an upset. If Belgium are to really land that statement win this summer, then Martinez would be wise to bring in Dembele at Witsel’s expense in Moscow this weekend.
