Gary Rowett got his tactics spot on in the first leg, not just with his formation and starting line-up but also when a change of dynamic was required in the face of a potential Fulham onslaught later on. Cameron Jerome’s bullet header after 34 minutes now separates the two sides but just as important was Rowett’s double substitution on 68 minutes and sudden switch to a back three.
If this game - and ultimately the whole tie - is going to be settled from the touchline, you’d be odds on about Rowett making the difference over Slavisa Jokanovic. For the Serbian, hope lies in home advantage and generating a head of steam that never quite materialised at Pride Park. If Fulham go through gears, they can overturn a one-goal deficit no problem.
So it’s a safe bet that Derby will go about their business the same way, conceding possession for the most part and clogging up the channels to deny the Cottagers space in the areas where they do most of their damage. But their chances of success might well rest in their quality on transitions because another clean sheet at Craven Cottage would be a tall order.
Indeed, Rowett, upon reviewing the first leg himself, has spoken of those moments when the Rams ought to have exploited the spaces in front better and that might be where he has concentrated most of his analysis in preparation for the return. Derby don’t have to do anything different defensively to progress but they might have to be more incisive with the ball.
As such, there’s appeal in the score draw at 9/2 (match result and both teams to score) and those who fancy something even more exciting might also want to throw a point at the 18/1 available on the 2-2 correct score. Six teams (including Derby) have landed the former bet at the Cottage this term, while Preston and QPR have also copped the latter.
The one-goal cushion isn’t just a mathematical advantage, it’s also a psychological one that can enable Derby to be ruthless when it matters. Fulham must now push themselves more than they normally would and, for them, going ahead on the night is only half the battle. Under those conditions, the Rams might conceivably only have two real chances and score two goals.
Recommended bets:
1pt Draw and both teams to score at 9/2
1pt 2-2 correct score at 18/1
New Coral customers can receive odds of 33/1 for a goal to be scored in Fulham v Derby.
(New customer offer)
