If you’d told a Newcastle United fan in May that Rafa Benitez would have been in danger of the sack come October, you’d have been laughed out The Toon.
Back then the Spaniard had just led Newcastle to an impressive 10th place finish upon their return to the Premier League.
Fast-forward to the current day and Benitez finds himself under pressure following a wretched winless start to the season, during which the 19th-placed Magpies have registered only two points.
In the Premier League era only eight other teams have registered two points or less after eight matches - see image below - including Neil Warnock’s Cardiff City who are the only club below Newcastle in the table.
Should Newcastle lose at home to travel-shy Brighton on Saturday they will join an unwanted group that currently consists of three teams - Manchester United (1930), Portsmouth (2009) and Bolton (2011) who were all relegated - that have started a top-flight season with five consecutive defeats on their own patch.
Furthermore, fans have been starved of goals with Newcastle only scoring two goals or more in just four of their last 20 league matches at St James Park
Worst still, it could soon result in the club’s controversial owner, Mike Ashley, wielding the axe on Benitez, who in turn would become the first managerial casualty of the new season.
Fortunately for Benitez, he still retains the support of the majority of the Newcastle faithful, but a twelfth defeat in their last 15 matches in all competitions would represent a truly rotten record. Still, a sacking would represent a staggeringly unpopular decision - and could result in unsavoury scenes - especially considering the lack of realistic contenders available to replace him.
If the former Liverpool boss is shown the door, then another ex-Reds gaffer in Brendan Rodgers could well come in the other direction. Reports have linked the Celtic manager, 9/2, with a move to St James’ Park, although this outcome does appear unlikely. Other contenders in the betting include Michael O’Neill, Martin O’Neill, Eddie Howe and Slaven Bilic...while Ant & Dec are out at 1000/1.
The more optimistic of fans, will view the timing of the international break as a positive, as a glance at the upcoming fixture list shows a far kinder series of games.
The Toon have already played, and lost to, the likes of Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal and Man Utd, however from now until Christmas they face five teams that finished below them last season, along with two of the Premier League new boys, plus Burnley and Everton.
It’s also worth noting that between October and mid-December 2017, Benitez’s Newcastle collected one point from nine games, however he swatted away the critics and inspired a top-half-of-the-table finish.
You can’t completely rule out a sacking if Newcastle do go on and lose at home to the Seagulls, but Benitez’s popularity and history of turning things around, means a P45 slip is doubtful at least until the fans start to turn.
Should the 58-year-old ride out the current rough-patch he’s more than likely to leave in the summer anyway once his contract expires, unless there’s a sudden change in ownership...
