Kevin Nolan knows a pattern when he sees one, so he will surely have noted the fact that Yeovil and Lincoln had joy when taking the game to Coventry on recent visits to the Ricoh Arena. The Glovers scored three times in the opening 15 minutes on the way to a shock 6-2 victory, while Lincoln were ahead inside 60 seconds and led three times before the break in a 4-2 triumph.
So don't be surprised if Notts County make most of the early running here. Mark Robins is generally patient and conservative in his approach and, typically, he is downplaying the significance of home advantage in the build-up, using the harrowing memory of a 3-0 EFL Trophy area final defeat to Crewe five years ago as a vehicle to preach caution.
Combine this with Nolan's understandable concern about the 4,000-strong following Coventry will take to Meadow Lane for the return and there's a body of evidence to believe that the Magpies might be looking to grab the initiative and see how the hosts deal with the ensuing anxiety. It's been a monumental season for the Sky Blues and they could labour under big expectations.
Notts aren't in brilliant form - just three wins in their last nine matches - but they did beat Coventry on their own patch a month ago with Jonathan Forte grabbing both goals in a 2-1 win. And despite falling away from the automatic promotion pace in 2018, they have overachieved to finish fifth and can approach the play-offs in the more opportunistic frame of mind.
With this in mind, back Notts County to score the first goal and also win the first half at 15/8 and 19/5 respectively. It might go against most intuitions but the opening 45 minutes at the Ricoh might be the period when general conditions favour the Magpies most. Striking early might be key to their chances of progression over the two legs.
Recommended bets:
1pt Notts County to score first at 2.88
1pt Notts County to win the first half at 4.80
