Everyone involved in football – from the fans to the owners - has a short memory. It is, perhaps, an unavoidable symptom of following its one-year cycles, the endless reboot that requires us to wipe our memories over the summer and begin again at zero. Things change so quickly in football we only see what's immediately there, a paradox that bleeds into our analysis of everything: players' abilities are fixed, managers succeed or fail over ten-game bursts, and clubs' statures are permanent.
The consensus analysis of the 2017/18 season closely follows this pattern of amnesia: Manchester City are destined for a period of dominance, even though the title hasn't been successfully defended for nine years; the "big six" are immovable, even though Leicester City won the Premier League three years ago; and Tottenham Hotspur are one of the established elite clubs, even though their ascendancy is entirely thanks to Mauricio Pochettino's achievements on a mid-table club's budget.
Look beneath Poch's management and there is virtually nothing to separate Spurs from the likes of Everton or West Ham United, save a few thousand extra seats at a time when the financial advantages of a bigger stadium are decreasing. Successive seasons in the Champions League have created the illusion of Spurs as one of the very top clubs in English football, but without the global stature or branding of Manchester United, Manchester City, or Liverpool, it wouldn't take much for Spurs to start tumbling down the table.
A decline is inevitable unless Daniel Levy loosens the purse strings, something he's been publicly urged to do by Pochettino this week. The club "needs to take risks", as the Argentine put it, and although Poch is expected to stay for one more year his relationship with Levy is becoming increasingly fractious, according to Neil Ashton in the Sun. His report says Pochettino wants to push for silverware but the chairman is happy ticking over in the top four, strongly suggesting Levy suffers from the same wilful amnesia as the rest of us. If only treading water was that simple.
The gap between Spurs and Everton is wafer thin. A possible scenario: 12 months from now Pochettino leaves for Real Madrid, who promptly sign Harry Kane, triggering Christian Eriksen and others to recognise the end of a cycle and – quite reasonably – request transfers to clubs willing to triple their wages. Without Pochettino's ruthless man-management to keep want-away stars in check, and without Pochettino's eye for a cheap replacement, Spurs see their team picked apart by super-clubs from across Europe. They are left with plenty of money to spend, but successions are never easy and, like the nine-figure sums wasted by Everton and Chelsea in 2017/18, Spurs make one managerial mistake and invest poorly.
Tottenham boast a state-of-the-art 60,000-seater stadium, which brings them some comfort during this difficult time and generates significant income, but it isn't enough to elevate them beyond the reach of the chasing pack. The latest TV deal vastly outweighs profits from ticket sales, and by 2022 Chelsea, Everton and Liverpool join West Ham in boasting a similar size stadium to White Hart Lane. Newcastle United and Aston Villa, backed by billionaire investors and catching up fast, are both in the process of expanding their grounds.
There is every possibility this nightmare scenario won't happen, of course. Spurs might pick another superb young coach, reinvest the profits from Kane on some of Europe's most talented young players, and cement their place as equals in London to Arsenal and Chelsea. But it is far from guaranteed.
Unless Levy answers his manager's request to dramatically increase the wage and transfer budget Spurs could end up on the outside looking in, boasting no greater resources than a host of other clubs locked out of the new "big five".
Tottenham cannot afford to forget how recently they arrived at the top table or how much of their success is founded on the irreplaceable genius of Mauricio Pochettino. To consolidate power Levy must let go of the delusion that Tottenham's current position is inevitable. He must spend big. It is now or never.
