Gareth Southgate was stuck between a rock and a hard place when he picked his team to face Belgium.
Had England won and topped the group, they would have had arguably a much tougher route to the final, including a likely quarter-final against Brazil. As it was, a 1-0 defeat means they will face the intimidating prospect of Colombia in the last-16, with the winner of Switzerland vs Sweden lying in wait in the last eight.
If they can overcome Los Cafeteros, England will therefore find themselves in the easier side of the draw. The problem is that this is much easier said than done.
The Three Lions’ record has to be taken into account - they last won a World Cup knockout game in 2006 - but Colombia’s threat is enough cause for concern on its own.
They were underwhelming in their first game, Carlos Sánchez Moreno receiving the first red card of the 2018 World Cup in a 2-1 defeat to Japan.
However, for the remainder of the group stages, something clicked. In the 3-0 victory over Poland, they played with a fluidity and a flourish that allowed their most technical players, particularly James Rodríguez and Juan Cuadrado, to shine.
While they have played some of the most elegant football of the tournament so far, they will also be looking to beat England at their own game as they too rely heavily on set pieces. Yerry Mina, who stands at 6ft 5in, has already scored two headers via that method in Russia.
That said, Southgate may also be sizing up the centre-back for different reasons. The 23-year-old had a disastrous season at Barcelona and it is almost inevitable he will be leaving Catalonia, at least on loan.
Colombia’s defensive partnership is relatively inexperienced, though it has to be said that Davinson Sanchez looks years ahead of himself. The Tottenham defender, like the rest of his team-mates, struggled against Japan but has since been showing the composure that helped him to make such a huge impression in his debut season in north London.
Against Senegal, a penalty was awarded against him for a foul on Sadio Mane, before VAR revealed it had actually been perfectly-timed. Sanchez and Mina have a lot to learn and it is likely that however the last-16 tie goes, we will be talking about them for one reason or another.
It is typically Colombia’s attack that attracts the most attention. Radamel Falcao missed the last World Cup with torn ligaments and he has been making up for lost time with his performances so far.
Yet speaking of injuries, José Pékerman is now sweating on the fitness of James, who was forced off against Senegal. The Bayern Munich loanee scored six goals in qualifying and tore Poland apart with some exquisite passing; so much has happened to him since his exploits in Brazil and he is showing further glimpses that he is rediscovering himself away from Real Madrid.
From one perspective, playing Colombia is ideal for England. At some stage, they must overcome their inferiority complex and they will be able to do that against a team that are not invincible.
Granted, the South Americans are hoping to reach their second quarter-final in a row having emerged as dark horses in 2014. This is certainly by no means an easy route through the knockout stages, but if England can overcome this hurdle, it could represent a huge shift in the national psyche.
Colombia have the more experienced squad, Cristian Zapata, Falcao, and Carlos Bacca all in their thirties and knowing that this is likely to be their last shot at the Jules Rimet. Incidentally, the odds of them winning the whole thing were 40/1 at the outset, compared to England being priced at 18/1 by many bookmakers.
Whatever they are expecting from Colombia, Southgate’s men will underestimate them at their peril and cannot afford to get carried away. The big question is whether, after the lethargy of Belgium, they can rediscover the belief that was so evident against Tunisia and Panama.
