Taken solely on paper, this weekend’s Manchester derby comes at the ideal time for the red half of the equation. Manchester United have finally found some form, having won their last three games in a row in all competitions. Manchester City, however, are enduring a tough time. Wolverhampton Wanderers and Arsenal have beaten them in two of their last three Premier League outings.
Of course if you dig behind the cold results, you’d see why Betfred have Man City at 4/6 to pull off the victory at Old Trafford. United have beaten FC Copenhagen, Sheffield United and Brentford in their most recent three outings. You can only beat what’s in front of you, but that is still hardly a murderer’s row of top sides.
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That would matter less if the performances within the games had been suitably dominant. But United huffed and puffed to victory in all three. They were 1-0 down against Brentford until Scott McTominay’s injury time brace. They created little at Bramall Lane, needing a stunning Diogo Dalot strike to beat the winless, 20th-placed Sheffield United. Then they almost threw away the Copenhagen game in the Champions League, but for a last-minute Andre Onana penalty save keeping them alive.
In truth, United can only boast one comprehensive performance this season. Their 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace in the EFL Cup was as good as it’s got for Erik ten Hag’s side this term. Even then, any afterglow from a vastly improved display was blunted when they lost 1-0 to the same opposition in their following Premier League game.
It is against this backdrop that the bookmakers are anointing City the prohibitive favourites, even given their own struggles. A 2-1 loss to Wolverhampton Wanderers last month caused concern. A 1-0 defeat to title rivals Arsenal saw the Cityzens lose ground early in their bid to retain the crown. But a 2-1 win with ten men against Brighton & Hove Albion suggests Pep Guardiola is stemming the tide. They have won each of their Champions League games this season 3-1 as well, outclassing RB Leipzig, Young Boys and Crvena Zvezda.
It says a lot about the expectations the reigning treble-holders have laid down that their current position seems like such a step down. City are second in the Premier League table and just two points behind leaders Tottenham Hotspur. The campaign is just nine games old. Guardiola’s men endured a slow start last term too, but in the end found it quite easy to surpass Arsenal and reclaim a title they’ve made their own.
Football is all about levels. Fans of lower league and non-league clubs will often scoff at a Premier League side in a “crisis”, something ascribed with contrasting severity to the two Manchester clubs recently. The concept of levels even comes in when separating United and City. The Reds have been playing poor football even in victory, and those victories have not been frequent enough. Those issues make City’s temporary and slight loss of form seem trifling in comparison.
That difference in levels looks set to play out on the pitch. Even against Copenhagen, United looked bereft of attacking ideas until Harry Maguire thudded his header home. City will not allow such lapses and you’d back them to have far too much for the faltering Red Devils. There really is levels to this game.
*18+ | BeGambleAware | Odds Subject To Change
