Whether you’re #SouthgateIn or #SouthgateOut, the England manager's record really does speak for itself. While you might not rate Gareth Southgate’s chances of leading the Three Lions to glory in Qatar, there is no disputing what he has achieved in his post. A first semi final appearance since Euro 96. A first major tournament final since the fabled 1966 World Cup. Nobody could have dreamt of the places Southgate has taken England when he accepted the job in 2016, with just a three-year spell at Middlesbrough on his senior management CV.
One senses the 2022 World Cup is the end of an era. While Southgate’s contract sees him through the next Euros, very few national managers have shaken off a disappointing international tournament. Without wishing to put a dampener on England’s 2022 campaign before it has even begun, it is difficult to envisage it matching World Cup 2018 or Euro 2020.
GROUP B BETTING: England 4/11 Wales 11/2 USA 11/2 Iran 14/1
England’s form has been poor as of late. Their last win arrived in March, a 3-0 victory over Cote d’Ivoire. Since then there have been three defeats, including a galling 4-0 reverse to Hungary, and three draws. It’s hardly the sort of form that leaves you itching to drop the needle on your old Lightning Seeds record.
The pile-on has been worsened by Southgate’s perceived selection slights. Harry Maguire, star of England’s last two tournaments, is now a pariah. But the manager trusts him, despite the social media storm. Southgate was beaten over the head with the fact he wasn’t expected to select James Maddison, despite the fact he eventually did. Some of the criticism has been broadly fair, like those who allege Ivan Toney warranted a World Cup place. Other jibes have felt like nit-picking. Did anyone seriously think Dan Burn was going to Qatar?
But this combination of results and fan-disconnect have led to the pervading feeling that this is Southgate’s last rodeo. When you consider England’s realistic ceiling this winter is a quarter final appearance, it becomes easy to envisage the former defender moving on. There are too many superior teams at the tournament to realistically consider England contenders. The Three Lions do have the capacity to surprise, as demonstrated ably in recent years, but all signs point to an earlier exit than 2018.
TOURNAMENT ODDS: England 9/1 Wales 250/1 USA 150/1 Iran 500/1
If this does come to past, this will inevitably be used as a stick to beat Southgate with. At least at first. But time has a way of smoothing down the edges of reactive anger. Look at Sven-Goran Eriksson. The amiable Swede was lambasted at the time for failing to take England’s vaunted “Golden Generation” past the quarter finals of a major tournament. But then his successor, Steve McClaren, failed to even qualify for Euro 2008. They were dumped out of World Cup 2010 at the round of 16 stage with Fabio Capello at the helm. The Italian was derided for his outdated tactics before resigning during Euro 2012 qualification after the FA stripped John Terry of his captaincy when he was charged with racial abuse.
Suddenly, the Sven era became fondly remembered. As with Arsenal when Arsene Wenger left and they stopped finishing in the top four, suddenly it was clear what an achievement reaching three consecutive quarter finals was. So if Eriksson experienced such a reputational revival, what awaits Southgate when his time in football’s hottest seat is done?
Gareth Southgate has achieved more than any England manager in history with the exception of Sir Alf Ramsey. The 1966 World Cup triumph will always ring-fence Ramsey’s achievements from his contenders for as long as England come home empty-handed from international tournaments. But no other manager has come as close to matching his achievements as Southgate.
ENGLAND STAGE OF ELIMINATION: Group Stage: 6/1, Last 16: 3/1, Quarter Final: 2/1, Semi Final: 9/2, Runner Up: 15/2, Winners: 7/1
In fact, when you compare their respective tournament records, there isn’t much to separate them. Both reached a major tournament final, with Southgate coming within a penalty shootout of matching Ramsey and winning a trophy. Both also reached a semi final at another tournament, Southgate at the World Cup and Ramsey at the 1968 Euros. If Southgate reaches the quarter final in Qatar, he will match Ramsey’s own efforts at the 1970 World Cup. Sir Alf has the edge, but Southgate is the clear silver medalist when judging England managers past.
The warm glow of nostalgia will eventually bestow Southgate such praise. It likely won’t come when the Three Lions face Iran on 21st November. Even a resounding win will simply be marked down as “job done”. It certainly won’t come if England fail to get out of the group. The social media complainants likely won’t be convinced by anything less than lifting the trophy. But Southgate’s day in the sun is coming.
There will come a time under the next manager, perhaps even during the tenure of the one after that. A moment of adversity for England, a low point like McClaren’s dark night of the brolly or Capello getting thumped by Germany. During that time, we’ll look back and remember semi finals, finals, Atomic Kitten and hope. We’ll remember the time when we came close to ruling the world and even closer to conquering Europe. After the game, we’ll heal our damaged pride with the songs of yesteryear. “Southgate you’re the one…”.
Mon 21 Nov (1pm GMT): England vs. Iran
Mon 21 Nov (7pm): USA vs. Wales
Fri 25 Nov (10am): Wales vs. Iran
Fri 25 Nov (7pm): England vs. USA
Tues 29 Nov (7pm): Wales vs. England
Tues 29 Nov (7pm): Iran vs. USA
*18+ | BeGambleAware | Odds Subject to Change
