The first question for Swansea City fans – before they contemplate whether their club can end a 600-minute goalless run to beat Stoke City on the final day – is this: can Manchester City realistically beat Southampton 7-0? What about 8-0? A nine-goal swing in the goal differences of Swansea and Southampton is needed for the Welsh club to survive, and that’s assuming they beat Stoke at the Liberty Stadium on Sunday.
Man City have nothing left to play for except one final record, the Premier League’s largest ever winning margin, currently held by Manchester United when they finished 18 points ahead of Arsenal in 1999/2000. Pep Guardiola’s side are 19 clear of their rivals at present, which means City will surely field a full strength team to maintain their distance to United. What’s more, Mark Hughes’s 3-4-2-1 formation is yet to be tested by a top team and there’s every chance his two-man midfield will be pitifully overwhelmed by the champions. A huge City win, then, is definitely on the cards.
This would leave Swansea with the relatively simple task – on paper, at least – of defeating already relegated Stoke on home soil. The Swans are currently on an eight game winless run in the Premier League and have scored just twice in that time, although their opponents have, remarkably, performed even worse in recent weeks; Paul Lambert has presided over 13 consecutive league matches without tasting victory. Something has to give.
The hosts are clear favourites, primarily because Stoke have only won one away game all season, an extremely fortunate 1-0 triumph at Watford back in October when the visitors had six shots on goal compared to the Hornets’ 15. The only realistic threat to Swansea is if Stoke’s players are enjoying the strange sense of freedom that often accompanies relegation. No longer under pressure to survive, Lambert’s team might suddenly seem more energetic, more fluid, than they have at any other point under the Scotsman.
And Stoke will take heart from the last meeting between the two sides, when goals from Xherdan Shaqiri and Mame Biram Diouf gave the hosts a 2-1 win after Wilfried Bony had scored a third minute opener. But that result was an awfully long time ago; Swansea should be the hungrier team, pushing forward throughout and wearing Stoke down. This, after all, is Swansea’s final chance to preserve their Premier League status after a seven year stay in the top flight.
Team News
Swansea are still without Wilfried Bony and Leroy Fer, both of whom suffered season-ending injuries some time ago, while Kyle Bartley is also unavailable. For Stoke, Bruno Martins Indi and Konstantinos Stafylidis are unavailable through injury with Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting unlikely to recover in time to feature.
The Potters are also without Jesé and Ibrahim Afellay, two players who symbolise everything that has gone wrong for the club this season. Both were marquee signings and both are now missing in action, Afellay told to stay away by Lambert after a training ground bust-up and Jesé choosing not to show up anymore. The on-loan Paris Saint-German winger is no longer being paid by the club.
Possible Line-Ups
Swansea: Fabianski; Mawson, Fernandez, Hoorn; Olsson, Clucas, Sung-yeung, Naughton; Ayew, Abraham, Ayew.
Stoke: Butland; Pieters, Shawcross, Zouma, Johnson; Bauer, Ndiaye, Allen, Shaqiri; Crouch, Diouf.
Prediction
Swansea have been far too defensive under Carvalhal, who is unlikely to survive the summer even if his side pull off a miracle this weekend, but surely he will set his team free to attack from kick-off. The added desire from the hosts, coupled with Stoke’s atrocious away record, means the Swans are favourites to win despite their own inability to score goals of late.
Score prediction: Swansea City 2-0 Stoke City
