The Stats Don't Lie: Aston Villa Are Going Nowhere With Steven Gerrard

Villa lie 16th in the Premier League having just nine points from their first nine games
11:38, 11 Oct 2022

Just under a year ago, change was afoot at Aston Villa. They'd made the decision to remove manager Dean Smith, the man who reunified the club and led them back to the Premier League. A few days later, Steven Gerrard was unveiled as their new boss having just guided Rangers to the Scottish Premiership title. Since then though, things haven’t quite gone to plan.

When Smith was relieved of his duties, Villa chief executive officer Christian Purslow said in a statement: “This year we have not seen the continuous improvement in results, performances and league position which we have all been looking for.”

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At the time of Gerrard’s arrival, he was viewed as one of the most promising up-and-coming managers around and Villa saw his appointment as the one that would see them gravitate towards the top 10 and eventually into the top six. 

Almost a year on and they couldn’t be further from their ambitions. They lie 16th in the table with nine points from nine games in 2022-23, just three points above the relegation zone. Both results and performances under Gerrard have largely been poor and there have been no clear improvements since he took charge.

In their dull 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest on Monday, in what was one of the worst televised matches of football you’ll have the displeasure of witnessing, Villa’s standout player was their veteran full-back Ashley Young. The former England star scored a stunning goal to level things up at the City Ground, scoring his first goal for the club since his first spell at Villa Park 11 years ago.

Gerrard was lucky that Young produced that individual moment of brilliance because whenever Villa got into the final third they never looked like they were going to score. Villa’s lack of cutting edge under Gerrard was perfectly summed up when the ball fell kindly for John McGinn inside the box and, rather than rifling a shot at goal, the Scotsman opted for a salmon-esque diving header that caused no problems at all for Dean Henderson. Players just don't seem to know what to do when they find themselves inside the penalty area.

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Of their 12 shots on goal, just two were on target. Villa were slated for not making the most of their 60% possession as they could only muster 27 touches in Forest’s box.

Fans were quick to swipe at the manager once again for how their attack, which features creative sparks Philippe Coutinho and Emi Buendia, has no pizazz. The two causing havoc together has been a dream for fans but, for whatever reason, whenever they play together neither can hit the heights. Coutinho is still waiting for a single goal contribution this term.

Supporters also shared their frustrations on social media at McGinn’s miss, saying how much he has been a shadow of his former self since Gerrard handed him the armband. The poor marking that was on show for Emmanuel Dennis’ opener on Monday also highlights how disorientated the defence is as the Nigerian was left with plenty of space to head home from a free-kick.

With such issues at both ends of the pitch, it feels as though the former Liverpool star is on borrowed time, as neither results nor performances have reflected what Purslow stated Villa were looking for last November. There is no intensity on the pitch to break quickly, the players are playing too safe and look clueless when they do get into a dangerous position - they simply have no confidence.

Gerrard has overseen just short of a full Premier League campaign with Villa, having managed 36 Premier League games so far. In those matches they have amassed 44 points, winning 12, drawing eight and losing 16. In this time, the team have both scored and conceded 44 goals. He now has a win rate of 35% as Villa boss, which is less than Tim Sherwood, the man who started the club’s top-flight relegation campaign of 2015-16. He was ultimately sacked after nine consecutive losses.

Collecting 44 points in 36 games is not going to win over the doubters. It works out to 46 points per season, which is far from top-10 form. If Villa are to become anything more than a regular bottom-half side, they need a serious rethink.

The fans are united in wanting a change to be made and the stats don’t lie. Purslow’s experiment has failed, Gerrard has looked out of his depth in this role and Villa have regressed under his stewardship.

Aston Villa are 6/1 to be relegated with Betfred*

*18+ | BeGambleAware | Odds Subject To Change

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