As Manchester United walked out onto the pitch few inside St James Park - let alone the neutrals watching at home - truly believed Rafa Benitez was capable of saving Newcastle United from relegation. The Spaniard hadn’t put a foot wrong since joining the club in March 2016, but even he surely couldn’t prevent such a desperate club from sliding back to the Championship.
But over the next 90 minutes everything changed. Benitez might reside over the weakest squad in the Premier League (it is certainly the most appallingly mismanaged) but a 1-0 win against Jose Mourinho’s side, catapulting the Magpies into 13th, has left the club a mere 10 points away from escaping the drop.
It wasn’t just the size of the scalp that should give Newcastle fans hope, but the style of their victory. Counter-intuitively, a difficult run-in for Benitez’s side (including Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal, and Chelsea) actually hands them a crucial advantage in the fight.
Newcastle are much better when faced with a daunting contest against the Premier League’s best sides, not just tactically but psychologically. Their lack of quality in key areas jars badly with the weight of expectation inside St James Park, where defensive football isn’t tolerated and mistakes scrutinised by a passionate 52,000-strong army of supporters. This explains why only Southampton and West Brom have worse home records in 2017/18.
However, when a club like Man Utd comes to town it is far easier for the fans to align with the players. All parties are happy to sit back, defend doggedly, and approach the match as feisty underdogs; it is a mentality to suit the absence of attacking talent at Benitez’s disposal.
Not that the Newcastle squad is without merit. Jonjo Shelvey and Mohamed Diame were superb together against Man Utd, controlling midfield with their surprisingly efficient tackling and composed passing under pressure. Neither particularly excels when the pitch is stretched and they are forced to play as complete box-to-box midfielders, but in a pure attack-versus-defence contest simplified roles help both players to focus.
Tactically, playing the big six also suits Benitez’s strengths. The Spaniard has always been a defensive coach first and foremost, trusting risk-free conservative choices over an expansive approach, and so his detailed instructions are more readily actioned when unarguably better outfits visit the north-east.
Newcastle probably need 38 points to survive, a figure just three wins and a draw away. Home ties against Arsenal and Chelsea might seem like two of their most challenging remaining fixtures, but in reality they are perhaps the most winnable of all. Benitez will be quietly confident he can collect clean sheets and vital points from these two, not to mention the away trips to Liverpool and Spurs against outfits feeling the strain of Champions League football.
Granted, their away form against the top six has been poor (four defeats from four, 11 goals conceded), but the Magpies only really need positive results from those two home fixtures – and the form guide here looks good. An unfortunate 2-0 home defeat to Spurs on the opening day was followed by a 1-1 draw with Liverpool in October. A narrow 1-0 defeat to Man City in December offers serious hope.
On Sunday morning Premier League survival seemed far beyond Newcastle United. One stunning victory later and suddenly the path to safety is clearly lit; a couple more heroic defensive performances at St James Park will do it.
