He may have a Carabao Cup quarter-final to deal with tonight, but already Pep Guardiola is thinking about the upcoming Manchester derby this weekend.
“I have a few ideas, thoughts – ridiculous ones against United – but still I didn’t watch their last games,” Guardiola said in his latest press conference. “I have to see the way they play at home and if they change something. I still have to review it; that is why I don’t have a clear lineup [yet] against United.
There’s one word that stands out like a sore thumb in that quote: "Ridiculous". Guardiola is no stranger to doing the unexpected with inventive tactics and playing players out of position so, for him, "ridiculous" sounds next level bonkers.
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What will we see as the champions travel to Old Trafford? Perhaps he will drop the Premier League’s top scorer Erling Haaland, just to reiterate the point that he doesn’t ‘need’ a striker to win the title. Maybe he’ll go in a different direction, and play the Norwegian at left wing-back, just as he did with Gabriel Jesus at the Santiago Bernabeu.
Perhaps his ridiculous plan will involve a formation change, away from the 4-3-3, as City look to exploit Manchester United’s diminishing weaknesses under Erik ten Hag. The Dutch boss should take these words as major praise for the work he has done so far. Usually at Old Trafford, City rock up, play their normal game, and walk out with all three points. Now though, things have changed and United are one of the top sides in the division again.
But is this ‘ridiculous’ plan, just another prelude to more Guardiola overthinking. It’s something that even he has admitted he has done in the past. “In the Champions League, I always overthink, I always create new tactics and ideas, and tomorrow you will see a new one,” he said. “I overthink a lot, absolutely it’s fair [to say that]. That’s why I’ve had very good results in the Champions League. It would be boring, my job, if all the time I had to win the same way.”
It’s true that his overthinking is only exposed when City lose. It’s never a result of the player’s underperformance or individual errors, but instead Guardiola’s tactical set-up. He didn’t receive much praise when his side won away at Real Madrid with Jesus in that unusual role, but when he chose not to play a CDM in the 2021 Champions League final, all hell broke loose.
City were overrun, and ended up losing 1-0 to Chelsea. After 61 matches with either Fernandinho or Rodri starting, in his desperation to do something different, Guardiola arguably cost his side a Champions League trophy.
In the 2015 semi-final when in charge of Bayern Munich, he returned to the Nou Camp desperate to make an impression. Up against Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar, he went for an aggressive man-to-man press, often leaving just three defenders back against that front three. It almost paid off, but in the end, two Messi wondergoals and a third from Neymar secured a 3-0 win for the hosts, on their way to Champions League success. In chasing the away goal, Bayern had thrown the tie away.
A more recent example at Manchester City was seen on Amazon Prime's All or Nothing. In the dressing room at Goodison Park, all he could think about was the upcoming Champions League tie at Anfield.
“The forwards of Liverpool are good,” Guardiola said to his coaching staff. “They scare me. They’re dangerous, I mean it. I have a feeling that Salah will play striker. Salah will play as number nine and Firmino will move towards the wing. He comes here and Salah goes forward. Our wing-back can’t cover their wing-backs.”
Liverpool went on to win that first leg 3-0, and that was that. Guardiola was out of the Champions League - again. It’s a competition that has haunted arguably the greatest manager on the planet ever since he left Barcelona. He is still yet to win club football’s biggest prize without Messi, but domestically he has dominated.
Over the course of a league season, these tactical quirks can be corrected. But in a one-off game, in a hostile atmosphere, City have come undone in the past. Old Trafford on Saturday will be exactly that. A derby match against a side bang in form that will be desperate to get one over on their closest rivals.
Guardiola’s overthinking again, and this time it could pay off for Manchester United.
