It's been a breathless, VAR-fraught, and altogether thrilling start to the 2018 World Cup, the on-field action mirroring the friendly carnival atmosphere in Russia and the subversions of our expectations of it. From hooligan culture to technological hiccups, none of the pessimistic predictions have yet come true.
But perhaps the biggest surprise so far has been the competitiveness of the so-called weaker nations and the sluggish starts from so many of the pretournament favourites. Only three of the bookies' top eight picks recorded wins, with Belgium defeating Panama 3-0 and France and England recording narrow victories against Australia and Tunisia respectively.
Early signs suggest the 2018 World Cup is wide open, or certainly more so than in either 2014 or 2010, although there was one performance among the first 16 matches that, though it remained strangely hidden, presented a clear frontrunner. Cristiano Ronaldo's stunning hat-trick stole the headlines and the air time that should have been given to Spain's outstanding attacking performance.
Losing the manager just days before the tournament began was the worst imaginable start for the Spanish, and yet the early signs suggest it might just galvanise the team, bringing the players closer together as they fight against a narrative building against them. Fernando Hierro appears to have changed as little as possible, which is obviously the best strategy given Spain's superb record in qualifying, and it paid dividends in that fascinating 3-3 draw on Saturday.
Ronaldo's three goals felt incongruous with the events of the 90 minutes, his first a moment of early hesitancy in defence that Spain quickly recovered from, his second an unforced goalkeeping error, and his late freekick arriving at a time when Portugal looked buried. This is to Ronaldo's credit but also to Spain's, who kept the Portuguese quiet for much of the match and will feel confident their superb defensive record will return now that Cristiano is out of the picture.
Going forward, Spain were outstanding. The fleet-footed interplay between David Silva, Isco, and Andres Iniesta was by far the best seen so far in Russia, looking more like the familiar grooves of a club side at their peak than an assemblage of players from across La Liga and the Premier League. Their fluidity in possession was suffocating at times, recalling the tactics that helped them grind opponents into submission during their World Cup winning campaign of 2010.
But there are crucial differences between then and now. The football is more urgent, partly because of Isco's importance to the side but primarily because Julen Lopetegui preached high pressing. Few other nations in Russia play with such purpose or with such a compressed high block, which will prove to be a major advantage in the knock-out stages.
Cohesion is the most difficult attribute to find in international football. It is not coincidence that the last two winners, Germany and Spain, had a strong spine of players who worked together at club level (for Bayern Munich and Barcelona respectively). Spain are the only nation after the first week of the 2018 World Cup that look gelled, that look capable of swarming the final third in a way that mimics the prevailing tactics in European club football at the moment. For that reason, and in spite of their managerial crisis, Spain emerge from the first round as the tournament favourites.
