World Cup Odds Updated: Brazil And France To Meet In Final?

How are the odds shaping up?
10:39, 08 Dec 2022

The World Cup quarter-finals are now looming on the horizon, and the eight remaining teams all have dreams of lifting the famous trophy in Lusail next Sunday. We’ve now said goodbye to 24 nations and can start to plot routes to the final, but how are the odds shaping up? 

World Cup winner

Brazil are the clear favourites to win the 2022 World Cup at 13/8, which given they have a favourable quarter-final against Croatia and have looked superb so far, makes complete sense. Tite’s men were favourites before a ball was kicked and look every bit worthy of that title, having scored four past South Korea in the last 16. 

France are currently second favourites at 4/1, odds that are sure to plummet if they get past England on Saturday night. We haven’t seen a nation retain the World Cup since Brazil in 1962, but 60 years on, France look like they could go all the way yet again. 

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Argentina, Portugal and England are all placed at 6/1, which could prove excellent value as we move into the final four. Portugal in particular, given they face Morocco in the quarter-finals and looked sublime without Cristiano Ronaldo against Switzerland, could well win this World Cup, with one of the strongest squads on paper. 

If Lionel Messi can drag Argentina to World Cup glory it will be miraculous, while England’s odds seem fair given the difficulty of their quarter-final. One of France or England will be heading home on Sunday, but the winner will become the second favourite to win the entire tournament, behind Brazil. 

The Netherlands are 14/1 as Louis van Gaal targets the perfect ending to his career, whole Morocco are 28/1 and Croatia are 33/1.

Golden Boot winner

Kylian Mbappe is now on five goals, and given a total of six has been enough to win nine of the past ten Golden Boots, he is rightly the 4/7 odds on favourite. He’s been unstoppable so far, scoring his five goals in just three starts, and with England up next, will be desperate to add to his tally. 

There’s a genuine possibility that Mbappe could have won two World Cups by the age of 23, and if he does that while winning the Golden Boot, he will already write his name in football’s great history. But there are other contenders for the top goalscorer award. 

Harry Kane won the Golden Boot in Russia
Harry Kane won the Golden Boot in Russia

Brazil’s Richarlison is on three goals, but they have looked so good so far this tournament and can score goals at will. If Croatia get turned over and France go out this weekend, the 7/1 odds could look huge.

Lionel Messi is doing something special with a fairly average Argentina team this year and he is 10/1 to surpass Mbappe for the Golden Boot. Bear in mind however, that if he manages to get his side past the Netherlands on Friday, Brazil await in the semis. 

Olivier Giroud is 16/1, while the English hopes are Marcus Rashford at 22/1, Bukayo Saka at 25/1 and Harry Kane at 33/1. 

Name the finalists

Here’s where there could be value to be found. If you fancy your chances at plotting a team’s route to the final, take a look at this market. Brazil, given they are favourites to win the whole thing, are the likely finalists from one half of the draw. Tite’s men have to beat Croatia and then the Netherlands or fierce rivals Argentina to make the final. Given they will be strong favourites in both games, it seems incredibly unlikely that they won’t feature in their first final since 2002. 

So, who will they play? 

The most likely opponent according to Betfred is France, and a Brazil/France final is priced at 7/2. Brazil/Portugal is 9/2, which makes a lot of sense when you consider that the Portuguese are near-certain to play in the semi-finals, with all due respect to underdogs Morocco. Then, you have Brazil/England at 5/1. The Three Lions will have to overcome France and Portugal to make the final, so it is a tough task, but not an impossible one. 

But if you think Brazil will slip up, the odds increase drastically. An Argentina/France final is 8/1, while Argentina v England/Portugal, is 9/1. 

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