The 87th Masters is almost upon us and the golf season has already been as tantalising as ever so far. This year has seen a wide variety of winners, with Jon Rahm and Max Homa the only two players to have won more than once this season.
We’re going to take a look at the top ten favourites to win in Augusta, and take a peek at their form going into the first major of the year.
Scottie Scheffler’s been racking up wins on the tour since the start of last year. He racked up four wins including The Masters last year, defeating Rory McIlroy by three shots. In fine form at the Phoenix Open and The Players, Scheffler is the man to beat on tour at the moment, as his consistency seems to know no bounds.
The world number one gets the tag for a reason. A superb swing sees him gain the most strokes off the tee, from tee-to-green, and gets to the green in regulation at a stunning rate of 73.7%. It’s an increase on his percentage last year, and there’s only been two better rates on tour in the last 25 years - by Jim Furyk in 2019-20 and Tiger Woods in 2006. His putting might not be perfect but he very rarely makes errors that lead to high strokes.
Whisper it quietly, but Rory McIlroy might be back in his prime. The four-time major champion is still in contention for nearly every tournament he plays in. Despite a poor showing in The Players, a win in the CJ Cup, a second in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and third place in the World Matchplay, defeating Scottie Scheffler in the consolation round, has shown his class so far this season. He’s been waiting to complete the grand slam for nine years now, but he seems to feel the pressure of Augusta more than most.
‘Rahmbo’ was the hottest player on the tour at the start of the year. Consecutive victories at the Tournament of Champions and the American Express in the opening weeks of the year were definitely fuel for the fire, and you can forgive him for only picking up one more tournament win since. It will be Rahm’s seventh visit around Augusta, having made the cut every single time and finishing in the top-ten four times.
The stats for the Spaniard show a player at the peak of his powers. An average of 5.2 birdies per round is the highest on tour, and he even grabs an eagle every 47.5 holes, the highest on tour again. It’s clear that one improvement that he needed to make last year was his putting, and although his putts per round remains slightly higher than the best, his average is the second best on tour. He’s having a crazy year and what better year than one with a Ryder Cup to come.
Former world number one Jordan Spieth finds himself fourth favourite, despite only winning on tour twice since his glorious wire-to-wire Open victory at Royal Birkdale. But things have been going in the right direction for Spieth. Six top-15 finishes so far this season are indicative of a change of fortunes for the American, and perhaps he can win another green jacket.
The stats might indicate to steer clear of Spieth on this one. His driving has been poor this season, hitting the fairway 53.2% of the time, way below the field average. Other aspects of the play needed to win in Augusta are around the average marker too. He’s been excelling at recovery play, with a good rate at scrambling onto the green from distance, but Augusta’s greens are probably a step too far this year.
The hipster’s choice for this year’s edition. Cantlay has been playing great for the last 12 months, finding himself running deep into the FedEx Cup last season, winning the BMW Championship a year after he won the whole cup. His best finish at Augusta is ninth back in 2019, but he’s capable of shooting impressive rounds, just not putting three or four of them together.
So far this year, he’s led the field in average strokes in par fours, averaging 3.88, as well as the average lowest round on tour with 60. Off the tee, his accuracy and range is impressive which is vital to a successful Masters campaign, where two-putting is expected from most of the field. Many hopefuls have undone themselves with poor drives, but Cantlay’s coolness could get him over the line for his first Major.
One of the most impressive players on tour last year, Cameron Smith is the lowest odds LIV Golf player on this list in fifth place. His battle with Scheffler in the final pairing of round four last year was a stunning spectacle, with the suo going blow-for-blow with exquisite talent on display. He couldn’t get the job done, but with an Open victory under his belt, Smith could be eyeing up a second major title before the age of 30.
Since he moved to LIV, the Aussie has managed two top-five finishes, winning once in Chicago following his British Open victory. His stats from last year are amongst the best for birdies made and strokes gained. Whether he can translate that into the Masters is another story. An average weekend in the 2023 LIV Golf opener in Tucson was followed up with a 6th-placed finish with -6 in Mayakoba.
Justin Thomas's five-year run in the world top ten rankings has come to an end as Sam Burns replaces JT, who skipped the WGC World Matchplay which Burns won. Having won the PGA Championship twice, Thomas has often found himself in trouble when pushing for more major titles. 15 PGA Tour wins have plenty of big wins, including The Players and two wins in the road to FedEx Cup competitions, but fourth is the best finish he’s ever come up with in Augusta. He averages 71.54 around Augusta, and has never failed to make a cut, but he just can’t score as low as his counterparts. He’s finished in the top-25 for six years in a row so an each-way bet might be the way to go.
If Thomas is to find success this year, it will be his short game that gets him out of trouble. He ranks first in shots gained from around-the-green and, from 125-150 yards, he averages 19-feet from the pin, the second best record on the tour this year.
It’s been a topsy-turvy year for Schauffele. A back injury that saw him withdraw from the season opener in Hawaii was followed up with the 132nd albatross the PGA Tour had seen since records began in 1983. If his injury issues were simple, then Schauffele would no doubt find himself lower in the list of favourites, but despite his unflappable persona, he might just struggle to keep the ball moving well in Augusta.
His best finish came in 2019, finishing second behind Tiger Woods, and he followed it up in 2021 with a third-placed finish behind Hideki Matsuyama. It’s clear the lush green of Augusta suits him, but it might just be too soon for the 29-year-old. He currently holds the record for most consecutive cuts made on the PGA Tour with 20, so expect to see him playing all four days.
Making his fourth Masters appearance, Collin Morikawa has the experience of major victories. Having won the 2020 PGA Championship and 2021 British Open, Morikawa is moving his way closer to a green jacket, finishing T18th in 2021 and 5th in 2022. His only issue is that he hasn’t lifted a trophy since his exploits at Royal St George’s in 2021.
All the stats are good for Collin. An accurate driver, hitting the fairway over 70% of the time (second-highest on tour) and also has the second highest shots-gained with approach shots. Luckily for the 26-year-old, Augusta is exactly the sort of place to put his skill-set to work. Putting is not a major concern for winning a green jacket, so as long as his work getting to the green leaves him with enough strokes to hole pars and birdies, there’s no reason why he can’t be amongst the top of the field.
Everybody’s favourite pro-golfer/Twitter user, Max Homa has been putting together some impressive results this year. Unfortunately for Homa, he’s never really put it together in a major championship. He’s not made the cut in eight of his 13 major appearances, which is pretty ugly reading if you’re hoping for him to lift the trophy on Sunday. A T6 finish in The Players in February was a great finish with the field as competitive as it was, and five tour wins since the start of 2021 is great reading for a player approaching his peak.
He now finds himself sixth in the world rankings and second in the FedExCup leaderboard so far. The stats show that his total strokes gained is the third best in the entire tour with 2.16, with a special mention to his birdie rate in par threes. He’s a quick starter too, so the 25/1 price is justified as you’ll know if he’s going to be finishing around the top by the end of the first day.
The only worry there might be around Homa is how he can react to tough situations. He doesn’t save often from bunkers and struggles when he’s caught in the rough, so he’ll have to stay sharp from the tee and use those par threes to get his score down. Nonetheless, he’s box office.
18+ | BeGambleAware | Odds Subject To Change
