The British & Irish Lions tour to New Zealand is less than two months away. On Wednesday coach Warren Gatland will name the 37-man squad that will take on the world champions in a gruesome ten-match tour.
Taking on the All Blacks on their home turf is the toughest test in world rugby. The Lions have only ever won one series on the Shakey Isles, and that was way back in 1971.
Selecting from the best of England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales will be no easy task. Whittling down more than 90 players to a squad of 37 will be difficult, with some talent set to miss out.
Will England captain Dylan Hartley get a reprieve? Will New Zealand winger Denny Solomona be the bolter? Will Wales skipper Sam Warburton get the captain’s armband? Will Kiwi-raised centre Ben Te’o make it in? The selection questions are endless.
But perhaps more important than the choices in players that Gatland makes is the style in which his team plays. The way in which they will take on New Zealand.
The All Blacks are the best team in the world, World Cup holders for the past six years, for a reason. All up they have lost just four games out of 68 since the 2011 World Cup, a phenomenal record. At home they are virtually unbeatable.
Gatland knows all about the All Black’s fearsome record and New Zealand’s famed rugby culture. The 53-year old comes from Hamilton and had nearly a decade as a prop for Waikato.
As coach of Wales he has won a grand slam in 2008 and 2012, and a Six Nations title in 2013. He also led the Lions to a 2-1 series victory over Australian four years ago.
With his decade in charge of Wales, Gatland has introduced a style of rugby known commonly as ‘Warrenball’. Simply put it is a philosophy based on his team winning the collisions and getting over the gain-line. They gain metres in the middle of the field to create space out wide, which they can then exploit.
It requires a team of big, physical players known for their strong ball-running. Gatland has certainly had some success with ‘Warrenball’ in its early days, but not in the past three years and not against New Zealand or Australia. As the sport changes, that one-dimensional style has become outdated and predictable, relying too much on kicking possession away and little improvisation during games. Gatland and Wales have tried to evolve this strategy more recently, adding more creativity and flair, but with little success so far.
‘Warrenball’ won’t work against the All Blacks, in fact it will just play right into their hands. The Lions need to take the game to New Zealand, not fall into a conservative, safety-first approach.
Apart from competing at every breakdown and counter-attacking from kicks, they need to move the ball with speed. No slow build-up and predictable play up the guts, but to attack space when it is there and offload when the pass is on.
The Lions need to move the All Blacks around, wear them out and frustrate them with their defence. Ball control will be key, as will the set-pieces. Gatland’s men may have an edge at the lineout and in the scrum, and they need to use that to their advantage at every opportunity.
Kicking the ball back to the All Blacks constantly will just invite them to attack. And that’s what they will do, with clinical efficiency. The Lions must work hard at the breakdown and mix their game plan up. Do the unexpected, at times run from deep, throw questions at the Kiwi defence.
If Gatland and his side just tuck the ball under their jumper and run straight at the All Blacks, phase after phase, then the series will be gone. But if they can think on their feet, have a few tricks up their sleeve and seize the moment when it arrives, then they have a real chance of making history.
